Sunday, July 06, 2014

Typhoon NEOGURI (FLORITA) Update #002


for Sunday, 06 July 2014 [7:09 AM PhT]



Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 06 July 2014
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sunday 06 July 2014

The powerful Typhoon NEOGURI has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) around midnight and is now locally named "FLORITA"...continues to threaten Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands.

This typhoon will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy conditions w/ occasional rains and gusty winds (not exceeding 50 kph) across Western Visayas and MiMaRoPa. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus, Taiwan and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of TY Neoguri (Florita).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines with possible effects caused by the current tropical cyclone.



As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Location: Over the eastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 17.7N 133.7E)
About: 1,150 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan...or 1,220 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 220 kph near the center...Gustiness: 270 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the eye): 200 to 350 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 1,035 km (Average)
Past Movement: Northwest @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest at 24 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea-Ryukyus Area


TY Neoguri (Florita) is expected to continue moving west-northwest to northwestward during the next 24 hours...with a sharp turn towards the north-northwest through 48 hours, and northerly to north-northeasterly by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the typhoon will move across the North Philippine Sea on Monday morning and will exit the PAR on Tuesday morning. Neoguri will be passing very close to the west of Okinawa on Tuesday afternoon and will be moving into the Yellow Sea towards Western Kyushu on Wednesday morning.

Neoguri (Florita) is expected to continue strengthening for the next 24 to 36 hours...and could become a Super Typhoon on Monday. By 48 hours, the dangerous typhoon may start to weaken as it enters slightly cooler sea surface temperatures over the East China Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 270 kph by Monday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Super Typhoon as it moves across the North Philippine Sea...about 755 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2AM JUL 07: 19.9N 129.2E @ 250kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns sharply towards the NNW across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea as it approaches Okinawa Area...about 245 km SSW of Naha International Airport, Okinawa [2AM JUL 08: 24.1N 127.0E @ 260kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR or over the East China Sea...moving north to north-northeastward away from the Ryukyu Islands...about 325 km NNW of Naha International Airport, Okinawa [2AM JUL 09: 29.1N 127.2E @ 230kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Jul 06, 2014
Class/Name: TY Neoguri (Florita)
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)

Location of Eye: Near 17.7º N Lat 133.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 1150 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1200 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 1220 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1270 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1490 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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