Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Typhoon NEOGURI (FLORITA) Update #008


for Wednesday, 09 July 2014 [7:56 AM PhT]


Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 09 July 2014
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 09 July 2014

Typhoon NEOGURI (FLORITA) has weakened rapidly as it turns to the northeast towards Western Kyushu.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy conditions w/ occasional rains and gusty winds (not exceeding 40 kph) across MiMaRoPa, Western Visayas and portions of Western Luzon...becoming more frequent with possible heavy monsoon rains along Calamian-Cuyo-Pamalican Group of Islands, Western Panay incl. Boracay, Mindoro Occidental, and Western Zambales today. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of TY Neoguri (Florita).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines with possible effects caused by the current tropical cyclone.



As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Location: Over the central part of the East China Sea (near 29.6N 126.3E)
About: 460 km southwest of Kagoshima, Japan...or 1,100 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center...Gustiness: 205 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and south of the eye): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 1,140 km (Average)
Past Movement: North-Northeast @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: Northeast at 17 kph
Towards: Western Kyushu


TY Neoguri (Florita) is expected to move northeast to east-northeast during the next 24 to 48 hours...and will slightly turn back to the northeast with a much faster forward speed through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the typhoon will be traversing the northeastern part of the East China Sea today and will make landfall along the western part of Kyushu, Japan by Thursday morning. It will then be passing along the southern shores of Shikoku and Honshu, Japan on Thursday evening through Friday. By early Saturday morning, Neoguri will be over Northwest Pacific Ocean, hundreds of kilometers to the southeast of Hokkaido, Japan.

Neoguri (Florita) will continue to rapidly lose strength through the next 24 hours. By 48 to 72 hours, the typhoon will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while moving across the Southern Coast of Japan due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions and the effect of the Japanese terrain which will also lead Neoguri to Extratropical transition. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 75 kph by early Saturday morning.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns northeast as it bears down the west coast of Kyushu...weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon...about 140 km SW of Nagasaki, Japan [2AM JUL 10: 31.8N 129.0E @ 130kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly accelerates towards the east-northeast while traversing the southern shoreline of Honshu...becoming an Extratropical Cyclone (aka. Middle-latitude Cyclone)...about 305 km SW of Tokyo, Japan [2AM JUL 11: 33.9N 137.2E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates northeastward while moving back to the Northwest Pacific Ocean...attains Extratropical status...about 495 km ENE of Sendai, Japan [2AM JUL 12: 40.0N 146.2E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Jul 09, 2014
Class/Name: TY Neoguri (Florita)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

Location of Eye: Near 29.6º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 325 km WNW of Amami, Japan
Distance 2: 380 km NNW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 460 km SW of Kasgoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 505 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1,100 km NNE of Basco, Batanes
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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