Monday, July 14, 2014

Typhoon RAMMASUN (GLENDA) Update #006


for Monday, 14 July 2014 [8:53 PM PhT]


Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Monday 14 July 2014
Next Update: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Tuesday 15 July 2014

RAMMASUN (GLENDA) has rapidly strengthened into a Typhoon while moving west-southwestward during the past 6 hours...endangers Bicol Region and Northern Samar. The potential landfall area of this storm shall be over Albay-Southern Camarines Sur on Tuesday afternoon, July 15.

Important Note: This typhoon is similar in track and strength of Typhoon VERA (BEBENG) which crossed the Bicol Region on July 14, 1983.

Residents and visitors along Southern and Central Luzon and Northern Visayas particularly the eastern shorelines should closely monitor the development of TY Rammasun (Glenda).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the current tropical cyclone.

BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, NORTHERN MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL, BULACAN, CAVITE, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES AND PANGASINAN:  Heavy rains of 50 mm or more will be experienced beginning Tuesday morning until Thursday morning...with Tropical Storm Force Winds of 65 kph or more up to Typhoon Force Winds of 120 kph near the path of TY Rammasun. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to seek shelter and take precautionary measures against strong winds, storm surges, flashfloods and landslides.


As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.

Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea (near 12.7N 128.7E)
About: 495 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 545 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 200 to 350 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 520 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 35 kilometers from the center
Past Movement: West-Southwest @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 24 kph
Towards: Bicol Region


TY Rammasun (Glenda) is expected to turn back towards the west-northwest during the next 24 hours...and will continue its track through 36 hours. By 48 to 72 hours, it shall turn move more to the northwest. On the forecast track, the typhoon will traverse the western-central portion of the Philippine Sea tonight...and will enter the Albay Gulf by noon Tuesday, making landfall over Northeastern Albay by Tuesday afternoon (approx. 3 PM)...and cross the Southern part of Camarines Sur between 4 to 8 PM. Rammasun (Glenda) will be crossing Southern Quezon and Metro Manila early Wednesday morning and shall be over the West Philippine Sea by Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday afternoon, it shall exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving across the South China Sea towards Southern China.

Rammasun will continue to intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours. It will then weaken slightly by 48 hours after traversing Bicol and Southern Luzon...will regain strength as it moves across the West Philippine Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 150 kph (Category 1 Typhoon) by Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further as it turns WNW while bearing down the Gulf of the vicinity of Rapu-Rapu Island...about 30 km east of Legazpi City, Albay [2PM JUL 15: 13.2N 124.0E @ 150kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after crossing Metro Manila and exits Southern Luzon...over the west coast of Zambales...about 70 km west-northwest of Subic, Zambales [2PM JUL 16: 15.0N 119.7E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Exits PAR as it regains Typhoon intensity while over the South China-West Philippine Seas...about 505 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM JUL 17: 17.8N 115.4E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Jul 14, 2014
Class/Name: TY Rammasun (Glenda)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)

Location of Eye: Near 12.7º N Lat 128.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 445 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 495 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 510 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 545 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 605 km ESE of Metro Naga
Distance 6: 850 km SE of Metro Manila
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
CPA [ETA] to Albay-Sorsogon: Tuesday Afternoon [between 1-2 PM PhT]
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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