Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS RAMMASUN Update #001

for Saturday, 12 July 2014 [7:10 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM RAMMASUN UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 12 July 2014
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 13 July 2014

The Tropical Depression (TD) which passed over Guam this morning has strengthened into a Tropical Storm (TS)...and is now named "RAMMASUN" - a Thai word for "God of Thunder." This cyclone is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday.

Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS Rammasun.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines with possible effects caused by the current tropical cyclone.

None.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.

Location: Over the Western Pacific Ocean...west of Marianas (near 13.6N 142.1E)
About: 295 km west of Guam, CNMI...or 1,935 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Size (in diameter): 260 km (Midget)
Area of Destructive Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 28 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 22 kph
Towards: Philippine Sea

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Rammasun is expected to move generally westward during the next 24 to 48 hours...and will turn west-northwestward with a slight decrease in its forward speed through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the storm will traverse towards the eastern portion of the Philippine Sea and enter the PAR by early Monday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, Rammasun will be moving along the central part of the Philippine Sea...approaching northeastern coast of Catanduanes.

Rammasun will continue to slowly intensify throughout the forecast period...and could become a minimal Typhoon on Tuesday afternoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 120 kph by Tuesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens slightly as it moves close to the PAR...about 1,470 km East of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM JUL 13: 13.7N 137.8E @ 75kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Moving across the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...strengthens into a strong Tropical Storm...about 910 km East of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM JUL 14: 13.8N 132.7E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it approaches the northeastern coast of Catanduanes Island...about 390 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM JUL 15: 14.5N 127.8E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES & TECHNICAL INFO

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Jul 12, 2014
Class/Name: TS Rammasun (09W)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Location of Center: Near 13.6º N Lat 142.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 295 km W of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 765 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1900 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 4: 1935 km E of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 2165 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS RAMMASUN (09W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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