Sunday, July 13, 2014

TS RAMMASUN Update #003


for Sunday, 13 July 2014 [7:35 PM PhT]


Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sunday 13 July 2014
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday 14 July 2014

RAMMASUN still a weak Tropical Storm (TS) as it swiftly moves towards the west...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. The initial potential landfall area of this storm shall be over or south of Baler, Aurora on Wednesday morning, July 16.

Residents and visitors along Luzon and Northern Visayas particularly the eastern shorelines should closely monitor the development of TS Rammasun.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the current tropical cyclone.

BICOL REGION:  Moderate to Heavy rains of 30 to 50 mm are likely to occur beginning Tuesday morning until Wednesday morning...becoming heavy rains of 50 to 100 mm with Tropical Storm Force Winds of not more than 75 kph across the provinces of Catanduanes, Camarines Norte and the Coastal Areas of Caramoan, Garchitorena and Siruma in Camarines Sur. Residents in these areas are advised to be alert and closely monitor the weather situation for possible changes in its forecast.


As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.

Location: Over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.6N 135.5E)
About: 1,220 km east of Virac, Catanduanes...or 1,275 km east-northeast of Legazpi City, Albay
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 335 km (Midget)
Area of Destructive Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 35 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 28 kph
Towards: Philippine Sea


TS Rammasun is expected to move generally westward during the next 24 to 48 hours...and will turn west-northwestward with a slight decrease in its forward speed by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the storm will traverse the central portion of the Philippine Sea by Monday afternoon...passing very close to Northern Catanduanes by Tuesday afternoon...and make landfall just south of Baler, Aurora on Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, Rammasun will be over Pangasinan or in the vicinity of Dagupan City after traversing the provinces of Aurora and Nueva Ecija.

Rammasun will continue to slowly intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours...and could become a minimal Typhoon on Tuesday afternoon. By 72 hours, the cyclone will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it interacts with the mountains of Central Luzon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 120 kph by Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further as it moves westward across the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 650 km East of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM JUL 14: 13.8N 130.2E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it passes very close to Northern Catanduanes...about 45 km North of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM JUL 15: 14.5N 124.3E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Over Pangasinan as it weakens into a TS while crossing Central Luzon...about 10 km North of Dagupan City [2PM JUL 16: 16.1N 120.3E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Jul 13, 2014
Class/Name: TS Rammasun (09W)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

Location of Center: Near 13.6º N Lat 135.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1175 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 3: 1220 km E of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 1275 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 1330 km E of Metro Naga
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF








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