Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS RAMMASUN Update #005

for Monday, 13 July 2014 [1:10 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM RAMMASUN (GLENDA) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 2:30 PM PhT (06:30 GMT) Monday 14 July 2014
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Monday 14 July 2014

Tropical Storm RAMMASUN (GLENDA) has gained more strength and continues to move westward swiftly increasing its threat to the Bicol Region and Northern Samar. The potential landfall area of this storm shall be over Camarines Sur on Tuesday noontime, July 15.

Residents and visitors along Luzon and Northern Visayas particularly the eastern shorelines should closely monitor the development of TS Rammasun (Glenda).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the current tropical cyclone.

BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, NORTHERN MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, QUEZON, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL, BULACAN, CAVITE, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, SOUTHERN NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES ANG PANGASINAN: Heavy rains of 50 mm or more are likely to occur beginning Tuesday morning until Wednesday evening...with Tropical Storm Force Winds of 75 kph up to storm intensity near the center, Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to seek shelter and take precautionary measures against strong winds, flashfloods and landslides.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today...0300 GMT.

Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.1N 129.8E)
About: 610 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 660 km east of Legazpi City, Albay
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center...Gustiness: 130 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 350 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 370 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 35 kilometers from the center
Past Movement: West @ 37 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 21 kph
Towards: Bicol Region

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Rammasun (Glenda) is expected to continue moving generally westward during the next 24 hours...and will turn west-northwestward by 48 through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the storm will traverse the western-central portion of the Philippine Sea today...making landfall over Camarines Sur by Tuesday noon...and passing over Metro Manila by Wednesday morning. Rammasun (Glenda) will be over the West Philippine Sea exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Thursday morning.

Rammasun will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. It will then weaken slightly by 48 hours after traversing Bicol and Quezon...will regain strength as it moves across the West Philippine Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kph (Category 1 Typhoon) by Tuesday morning.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Upgraded into a Category 1 Typhoon...as it moves westward across the western part of the Central Philippine Sea...approaching Bicol Region...about 120 km Southeast of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM JUL 15: 13.0N 125.2E @ 130kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens after it interacted with the mountain ranges of Bicol and Quezon...over the eastern coast of Bataan...about 40 km Southeast of Subic, Zambales [8AM JUL 16: 14.6N 120.6E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Regains strength over the West Philippine Sea...about to exit the PAR...around 430 km West-Northwest of Iba, Zambales [8AM JUL 17: 16.6N 116.2E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES & TECHNICAL INFO

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon Jul 14, 2014
Class/Name: TS Rammasun (Glenda)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Location of Center: Near 13.1º N Lat 129.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 570 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 610 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 660 km E of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 715 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 965 km ESE of Metro Manila
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS RAMMASUN (GLENDA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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