Monday, July 07, 2014

Super Typhoon NEOGURI (FLORITA) Update #004


for Monday, 07 July 2014 [8:01 AM PhT]


Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Monday 07 July 2014
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Monday 07 July 2014

NEOGURI (FLORITA) becomes the first Super Typhoon of 2014...starts to turn towards Okinawa while moving across the North Philippine Sea.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy conditions w/ occasional rains and gusty winds (not exceeding 50 kph) across Visayas and Luzon...becoming more frequent with possible heavy monsoon rains along MiMaRoPa, Panay including Guimaras, and Negros Occidental today through Tuesday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus, Taiwan and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of TY Neoguri (Florita).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines with possible effects caused by the current tropical cyclone.



As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Location: Over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.0N 128.5E)
About: 725 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan...or 680 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 240 kph near the center...Gustiness: 295 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the eye): 200 to 510 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 1,140 km (Average)
Past Movement: Northwest @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northwest at 22 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea-Okinawa-Ryukyus Area


STY Neoguri (Florita) is expected to move north-northwestward during the next 24 hours...with a sharp turn towards the north through 48 hours, and will recurve north-northeast by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the super typhoon will move across the North Philippine Sea today and will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday morning. Neoguri will be passing close to the west of Okinawa on Tuesday afternoon and will be moving into the northwestern coast of Kyushu, Japan by early Wednesday morning.

Neoguri (Florita) is still expected to strengthen for the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 to 72 hours, the dangerous typhoon may start to weaken rapidly as it enters the slightly cooler sea surface temperatures of the East China and Yellow Seas. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 270 kph by Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns northerly as it strengthens more while over the northern part of the North Philippine Sea...approaching Okinawa...about 295 km SSW of Naha International Airport, Okinawa [2AM JUL 08: 23.8N 126.4E @ 260kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its Northerly track across the East China Sea after moving out of the PAR...moving away from Okinawa...about 295 km NNW of Naha International Airport, Okinawa [2AM JUL 09: 28.7N 126.7E @ 260kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Recurves to the northeast as it bears down the Northwestern Coast of Kyushu, Japan...about 60 km SW of Sasebo, Japan [2AM JUL 10: 32.8N 129.2E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Jul 07, 2014
Class/Name: STY Neoguri (Florita)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)

Location of Eye: Near 20.0º N Lat 128.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 670 km SE of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 680 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 680 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 725 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 905 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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