for Tuesday, 08 July 2014 [10:40 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON NEOGURI (FLORITA) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday 08 July 2014
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 09 July 2014
NEOGURI (FLORITA) exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this morning as it maintains its strength...now moving across the southern part of the East China Sea.
This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy conditions w/ occasional rains and gusty winds (not exceeding 50 kph) across MiMaRoPa, Western Visayas and portions of Western Luzon...becoming more frequent with possible heavy monsoon rains along Northern Palawan, Calamian-Cuyo-Pamalican Group of Islands, Western Panay incl. Boracay, Mindoro Occidental, and Western Zambales today through Wednesday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of TY Neoguri (Florita).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines with possible effects caused by the current tropical cyclone.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.
Location: Over the southern part of the East China Sea (near 27.5N 125.4E)
About: 255 km northwest of Naha International Airport, Okinawa...or 845 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 205 kph near the center...Gustiness: 250 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and south of the eye): 200 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 1,140 km (Average)
Past Movement: North-Northwest @ 29 kph
Forecast Movement: North to North-Northeast at 19 kph
Towards: East China Sea
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY Neoguri (Florita) is expected to move north to north-northeast during the next 24 hours...with a sharp turn towards the northeast to east-northeast through 48 hours, and will maintain its east-northeast track with a much faster forward speed through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the typhoon will be traversing the East China Sea tonight through Thursday until it makes landfall along the southern part of Kyushu, Japan by Thursday afternoon. It will be passing along the southern shores of Honshu, Japan on Friday morning.
Neoguri (Florita) will gradually lose strength through the next 24 hours. By 48 to 72 hours, the typhoon will rapidly weaken as it moves across the Southern Coast of Japan due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions and the effect of Japanese terrain which will also lead Neoguri to Extratropical transition. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 75 kph by Friday afternoon.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Turns northerly as it weakens over the East China Sea...about 420 km WSW of Kagoshima, Japan [2PM JUL 09: 30.7N 126.2E @ 165kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Turns sharply east-northeastward as it makes landfall over the southwestern coast of Kyushu, Japan...weakens rapidly into a Tropical Storm...about 60 km ENE of Kagoshima, Japan [2PM JUL 10: 31.7N 131.2E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates east-northeastward while moving along the southern shores of Honshu, Japan...becoming an Extratropical Cyclone (aka. Middle-latitude Cyclone)...about 165 km SE of Nagoya, Japan [2PM JUL 11: 34.2N 138.2E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
ADDITIONAL DISTANCES & TECHNICAL INFO
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Jul 08, 2014
Class/Name: TY Neoguri (Florita)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Location of Eye: Near 27.5º N Lat 125.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 350 km NNE of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 255 km NW of Naha International Airport, Okinawa
Distance 3: 270 km NW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 4: 460 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 845 km NNE of Basco, Batanes
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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