Monday, July 07, 2014

Super Typhoon NEOGURI (FLORITA) Update #005


for Monday, 07 July 2014 [9:12 PM PhT]


Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 07 July 2014
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tuesday 08 July 2014

Super Typhoon NEOGURI (FLORITA) gained more strength while moving across the warm waters of North Philippine Sea.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy conditions w/ occasional rains and gusty winds (not exceeding 50 kph) across Visayas and Luzon...becoming more frequent with possible heavy monsoon rains along MiMaRoPa, Panay including Guimaras, and Negros Occidental today through Tuesday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus, Taiwan and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of STY Neoguri (Florita).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines with possible effects caused by the current tropical cyclone.



As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.

Location: Over the central-western part of the North Philippine Sea (near 22.0N 126.7E)
About: 515 km south-southwest of Okinawa, Japan...or 525 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 250 kph near the center...Gustiness: 305 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the eye): 200 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 1,140 km (Average)
Past Movement: Northwest @ 23 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northwest at 20 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea-Okinawa-Ryukyus Area


STY Neoguri (Florita) is expected to move north-northwestward during the next 24 hours...with a turn towards the north through 48 hours, and will sharply recurve towards the east-northeast by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the super typhoon will move across the northwestern part of North Philippine Sea tonight, passing Ryukyus-Okinawa area on Tuesday. Neoguri will be passing close to the west of Okinawa late Tuesday afternoon and will be moving into the western coast of Kyushu, Japan by Thursday afternoon.

Neoguri (Florita) is still expected to strengthen for the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 to 72 hours, the dangerous typhoon may start to weaken rapidly as it enters the slightly cooler sea surface temperatures of the East China and Yellow Seas. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 270 kph by Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Turns northerly as it strengthens more over the southern part of the East China Sea after moving out of the PAR...passing west of Okinawa...about 200 km W of Naha International Airport, Okinawa [2PM JUL 08: 26.3N 125.7E @ 270kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its Northerly track across the East China Sea...about 275 km SSW of Jeju Island [2PM JUL 09: 30.9N 126.0E @ 205kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Sharply recurves to the east-northeast as it nears the Northwestern Coast of Kyushu, Japan...about 55 km S of Nagasaki, Japan [2PM JUL 10: 32.3N 130.0E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Jul 07, 2014
Class/Name: STY Neoguri (Florita)
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)

Location of Eye: Near 22.0º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km SE of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 525 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 610 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 515 km SSW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 620 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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