Friday, July 20, 2018

Tropical Storm AMPIL (INDAY) Update No. 05


Tropical Storm AMPIL (INDAY) Update No. 05





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Friday, 20 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 20 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm AMPIL (INDAY) continues to gather strength while over the North Philippine Sea, now turns to the northwest with a serious threat to the Ryukyu Islands particularly Okinawa. It will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later tonight.  

This storm will not directly affect any parts of the Philippines.

24-hr Outlook: TS Ampil (Inday) is expected to become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later today and will pass over the Ryukyu Islands, over or very close to Okinawa by tomorrow, Saturday morning (July 21), with a slightly faster forward speed of 21 km/hr.  

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), Monsoon Trough, & TS Ampil (Inday) will continue to bring light to moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon.

Where is AMPIL (INDAY)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 20…2100 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 22.4°N 131.0°E), about 956 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 550 km southeast of Okinawa, Japan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Northwest @ 12 kph, towards the Ryukyu Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits PAR as it becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS). Approaching Okinawa, Japan while moving on a northwestward track…701 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 21: 25.7°N 128.5°E @ 100kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the coast of Eastern China, approaching Metropolitan Shanghai on a northwesterly track…about 244 km southeast of Shanghai, China [2AM July 22: 29.8°N 123.4°E @ 100kph]..  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 610 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri July 20, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 22.4ºN Lat 131.0ºE Lon
Distance 1: 1004 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 2: 1019 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 1082 km NE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 4: 1105 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1361 km NE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 25.7ºN 128.5ºE (STS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 29.8ºN 123.4ºE (STS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 32.6ºN 118.6ºE (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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