Monday, July 16, 2018

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 01


Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 01


Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Monday, 16 July 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (5:00 GMT) Monday, 16 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 92W has intensified into a Tropical Depression while over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea. It is named locally as "HENRY" and it moved west-southwestward at a speed of 23 km/hr in the past 6 hours. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 11W (HENRY) is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves west-northwestward over the northern part of the Balintang Channel at a forward speed of 31 km/hr. It is expected to cross Babuyan Island Group today (July 16) between 11 pm to 12 am

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (HABAGAT), Monsoon Trough, and TD 11W (HENRY) will bring moderate to at times extreme scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern, Northern, Western, Central, & Southern Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Bicol Region, Metro Manila, & Western Visayas.

Where is 11W (HENRY)?As of 05:00 AM PhT today, July 16…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.6 N 126.1 E), about416 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 463 km east-northeast of Ilagan City, Isabela.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Southwest @ 23 kph, towards Babuyan Island Group.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Babuyan Island Group today (July 16) between 11 pm-12 am, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern & Northern Luzon (July 17). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies as it continues to threaten Babuyan Island Group, near the eastern part of the Balintang Channel…about 172 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM July 16: 19.2N 123.6E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Passed over Babuyan Island Group as a Tropical Storm (TS), already at the northwestern part of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 166 km west-northwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2AM July 17: 19.9N 120.0E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) and make landfall over the northern part of Hainan Province, Southern China, already outside of PAR…about 464 km west-southwest of Hong Kong, China [2AM July 18: 20.2N 110.3E @ 95kph]..  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day.. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 485 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 05:00 AM PhT Mon July 16, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.6º N Lat 126.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 475 km ENE of Tuguegarao  City, Cagayan
Distance 2: 493 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 508 km ESE of Itbayat , Batanes
Distance 4: 525 km ENE of Santiago  City, Isabela
Distance 5: 699 km NE of Metro Manila24 hour Coordinates/Category: 19.9 N 120.0 E / TS
48 hour Coordinates/Category: 20.2 N 110.3 E / STS
72 hour Coordinates/Category: None

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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