Thursday, July 19, 2018

Tropical Depression 12W Update No. 01


Tropical Depression 12W Update No. 01


Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Wednesday, 18 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 18 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W has intensified into Tropical Depression (TD) 12W while over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea where it remained quasi-stationary in the past 6 hours. It is expected to be named locally as "INDAY". 

TD 12W will not directly affect any landmass of the country.

24-hr Outlook: TD 12W is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it recurves east-northeast over the central part of the North Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 17 km/hr.  

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (HABAGAT), Monsoon Trough, & TD 12W will bring moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern, Northern, Western, Eastern, & Central Luzon, Occidental Mindoro, & Metro Manila.

Where is 12W?As of 05:00 AM PhT today, July 18…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.2 N 127.1 E), about526 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 554 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Quasi-stationary, towards Central part of the North Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern Luzon (July 19). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it recurves east-northeastward over the central part of the North Philippine Sea…877 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM July 19: 20.1N 130.4E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 841 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM July 20: 21.7N 130..0E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a slightly intensified STS while over the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 766 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 21: 23.4N 128.9E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility with a near Typhoon (TY) category, over the East China Sea…about 548 km east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 22: 27.2N 126.5E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 425 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed July 18, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.2º N Lat 127.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 582 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 591 km E of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 3: 616 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 648 km ENE of Santiago  City, Isabela
Distance 5: 823 km NE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.1 N 130.4 E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.7 N 130.0 E (STS)
72 hr.. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.4 N 128.9 E (STS)
96 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 27.2 N 126.5 E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc.. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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