Monday, July 23, 2018

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 05


Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 05


Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) has maintained its intensity as it moved northeastward over Batanes Island Group or southern part of Bashi Channel in the past 6 hours. Its rainbands continues to affect Extreme Northern Luzon.

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (JOSIE) will intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moved north-northeastward at a forward speed of 23 km/hr over Yaeyama Island Group, already near the northwestern border of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).  

The combined effects of TD 13W (JOSIE) & enhanced Southwest Monsoon (HABAGAT) will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, & Western Visayas today.

Where is 13W (JOSIE)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 22…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of the Bashi Channel (near 20.4°N 121.9°E), about 13 km west-southwest of Basco, Batanes or 127 km north-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Northeast @ 19 kph, towards the Yaeyama Island Group
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern Luzon – Today

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over Yaeyama Island Group, near the northwestern border of PAR…about 272 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 23: 24.2°N 124.1°E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a TD while over the East China Sea, already outside of PAR…about 255 km south-southeast of Shanghai , China [2AM July 24: 29.3°N 122.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 480 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun July 22, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.4°N Lat 121.9°E Lon
Distance 1: 229 km N of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 274 km SSE of Taitung , Taiwan
Distance 3: 298 km SE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 336 km N of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 5: 654 km N of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.2°N 124.1°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 29.3°N 122.9°E (TD)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


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