Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 03

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (JOSIE) UPDATE NO. 03 Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 July 2018 Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) has slightly intensified for the past 6 hours while over the Balintang channel. Its rainbands continue to affect the Extreme Northern, Northern and Western parts of Luzon. 24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (JOSIE) will move northeastward across the Balintang Channel at a forward speed of 30 km/hr, and will pass over or very close to Babuyan Group of Islands on or before midnight tonight. By tomorrow, Sunday (July 22), 13W is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the eastern Balintang on Sunday morning and shall be over the western part of the North Philippine Sea on Sunday afternoon. The combined effects of this depression, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), & TS Ampil (Inday) will continue to bring light to moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila today.
Where is 13W (JOSIE)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 21…0900 GMT. The center was located over the western part of the Balintang Channel (near 18.7°N 120.2°E), about 67 km west of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte or 127 km north of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	East-northeast@ 26 kph, towards the Babuyan Group of Islands
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	*Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):* >> Northern and Extreme Northern Luzon – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a TS as it turns east-northeastward while over the eastern part of Balintang Channel…about 95 km north-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM July 22: 19.3°N 122.4°E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies as a TS while over the western part of North Philippine Sea…about 363 km east-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM July 22: 22.2°N 125.0°E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Exits Philippine Area of responsibility (PAR) and maintains its intensity as a TS while over the Southern part of East China Sea…about 310 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM July 23: 25.5°N 124.6°E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 410 km (Very Small/Midget) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat July 21, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.7ºN Lat 120.2ºE Lon Distance 1: 157 km WNW of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 2: 202 km NW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan Distance 3: 233 km N of San Fernando City, La Union Distance 4: 259 km NW of Ilagan City, Isabela Distance 5: 468 km N of Metro Manila12 hr.Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.3ºN 122.4ºE (TS) 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 22.2ºN 125.0ºE (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 25.5ºN 124.6ºE (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com

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