Monday, July 16, 2018

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 02


Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 02





Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (04:45 GMT) Monday, 16 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 16 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) speeds up, closer to Northern Cagayan and Batames Area and has slightly intensified. It is likely to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today.

24-hr Outlook: TD 11W (HENRY) is expected to maintain its fast, westward movement over the northern part of the Balintang Channel at a forward speed of 33 km/hr. It is expected to cross Babuyan Island Group tonight between 8 to 11 pm, and will exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning (July 17).

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and TD 11W (HENRY) will bring moderate to heavy to at times extreme scattered/occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern, Central & Southern Luzon; MiMaRoPa; Bicol Region; Metro Manila; & Western Visayas.

Where is 11W (HENRY)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 16…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.0N 124.2E), about 223 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 282 km southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Northwest @ 34 kph, towards Babuyan Island Group.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Babuyan Island Group today (July 16) between 8:00-11:00 PM, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern & Northern Luzon (July 17). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while traversing the Babuyan Island Group, in the vicinity of Babuyan Island…about 56 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8PM July 16: 19.4N 122.0E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it tracks westward while already outside of the PAR or over the South China Sea…about 342 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM July 17: 19.6N 117.7E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of the Gulf of Tonkin, starts to weaken after crossing Hainan Islands…about 659 km west-southwest of Hong Kong, China [8AM July 18: 20.2N 108.2E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 390 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon July 16, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.0º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 293 km NE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 311 km NE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 341 km ENE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 4: 359 km E of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 699 km NE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.4N 122.0E (TS)
48 hr.. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.2N 108..2E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.5N 104.9E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc.. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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