Saturday, July 21, 2018

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 02


Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 02





Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Saturday, 21 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) has accelerated eastward for the past 6 hours while maintaining its strength, as it moves closer to Ilocos Provinces and Babuyan Group of Islands. Its Southeastern and Eastern Rainbands continues to spread across Ilocos Region.

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (Josie) is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today and move east-northeast to northeastward across the Balintang Channel at a forward speed of 25 km/hr, and will pass over or very close to Calayan Island on or before midnight tonight.  By tomorrow, Sunday morning (July 22), 13W shall be over the southeastern part of the Bashi Channel.

The combined effects of this depression, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), & TS Ampil (Inday) will continue to bring light to moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila today.

Where is 13W (JOSIE)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 21…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Balintang Channel (near 18.0°N 118.9°E), about 165 km west-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur or 180 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)East @ 21 kph, towards the Babuyan Group of Islands
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Ilocos Region and Extreme Northern Luzon – Today

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EVENING: Becomes a TS as it turns east-northeastward while over the  southern part of the Balintang Channel, just near the offshore areas of Northern Ilocos Norte…about 65 km west-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [8PM July 21: 18.9°N 120.3°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly and accelerates rapidly to the east-northeast to northeastward across the southeasternmost part of the Bashi Channel, after traversing the Babuyan Group of Islands…about 114 km east of Basco, Batanes [8AM July 22: 20.5°N 123.1°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Already outside of PAR while turning northward across the southern part of the East China Sea, intensifies further…about 276 km east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [8AM July 23: 26.0°N 124.1°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 455 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat July 21, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.0ºN Lat 118.9ºE Lon
Distance 1: 213 km WSW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 236 km NNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 266 km NW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 4: 292 km W of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 445 km NNW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.5ºN 123.1ºE (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 26.0ºN 124.1ºE (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



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