Thursday, July 19, 2018

Tropical Storm AMPIL (INDAY) Update No. 04


Tropical Storm AMPIL (INDAY) Update No. 04


Issued at: 6:20 PM PhT (10:20 GMT) Thursday, 19 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 20 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm AMPIL (INDAY) has slightly intensified while over the central part of the North Philippine Sea. It moved northeastward in the past 6 hours. 

TS AMPIL (INDAY) will not directly affect any parts of the Philippines.

24-hr Outlook: This storm is expected to further intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm and will turn northward over the northern part of the North Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 19 km/hr.  

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (HABAGAT), Monsoon Trough, & TS AMPIL (INDAY) will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon.

Where is AMPIL (INDAY)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 19…0900 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.9°N 131.1°E), about 947 km east of Basco, Batanes or 974 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Northeast @ 12 kph, towards the northern part of the North Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it turns northward over the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…915 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM July 20: 24.4°N 130.6°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a slightly intensified STS, over East China Sea…about 453 km northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM July 21: 27.8°N 124.9°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 700 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu July 19, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.9ºN Lat 131.1ºE Lon
Distance 1: 1020 km E of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 2: 1043 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 1051 km E of Taitung , Taiwan
Distance 4: 1078 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1274 km NE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.4°N 130.6°E (STS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 27.8°N 124.9°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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