Thursday, July 19, 2018

Tropical Storm AMPIL (INDAY) Update No. 03


Tropical Storm AMPIL (INDAY) Update No. 03





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Thursday, 19 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 19 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 12W (INDAY) has intensified into a Tropical Storm (TS) last night and is now known worldwide as "AMPIL", a Cambodian word for Tamarind. This cyclone has been moving east-northeastward during the past 12 hours across the North Philippine Sea.  

TS AMPIL (INDAY) will not directly affect any parts of the Philippines.

24-hr Outlook: This storm is expected to further intensify and will turn north-northeastward over the central part of the North Philippine Sea at a slow, forward speed of 12 km/hr.  

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), Monsoon Trough, & TS Ampil (Inday) will continue to bring light to moderate to at times heavy scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon.

Where is AMPIL (INDAY)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 19…2100 GMT. The center was located over the south-central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.9°N 129.6°E), about 795 km east of Basco, Batanes or 853 km east-southeast of Aparri, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)East-Northeast @ 12 kph, towards the Central part of the North Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens further as it turns north-northeastward over the central part of the North Philippine Sea…936 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM July 20: 21.9°N 130.9°E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS), approaching Okinawa, Japan…about 720 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 21: 25.6°N 128.7°E @ 100kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Almost a Typhoon (TY) as it bears down the coast of Southeastern China while maintaining its northwesterly track…about 372 km north-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 22: 28.0°N 123.3°E @ 110kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time..

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 490 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu July 19, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.9ºN Lat 129.6ºE Lon
Distance 1: 815 km E of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 858 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 888 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 920 km ENE of Santiago  City, Isabela
Distance 5: 1083 km NE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.9ºN 130.9ºE (TS)
48 hr.. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 25.6ºN 128.7ºE (STS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 28.0ºN 123.3ºE (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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