Monday, July 23, 2018

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 06


Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 06





Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 23 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) continues to move farther away from Extreme Northern Luzon as it accelerated northeastward during the past 12 hours.  This cyclone is now currently moving along the northwestern part of the North Philippine Sea.

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (JOSIE) will maintain its strength and shall turn northward at a forward speed of 25 km/hr.  It shall pass over the Yaeyama Islands on or after midnight tomorrow, Monday (July 23) and exit the northwestern border of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) therefter.  

The combined effects of TD 13W (JOSIE) & the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila, Bicol Region, CaLaBaRZon, MiMaRoPa, & Western Visayas today.

Where is 13W (JOSIE)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 22…0900 GMT. The center was located over the northwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 22.5°N 124.2°E), about 310 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes or 321 km northeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Northeast @ 28 kph, towards the Yaeyama Islands
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing over Yaeyama Islands on a northerly track, about to exit the northwestern border of PAR…about 209 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 23: 24.7°N 123.6°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Moving along the southern part of the East China Sea, already outside of PAR…about 288 km northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM July 23: 27.1°N 123.3°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 555 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun July 22, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 22.5°N Lat 124.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 401 km E of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 452 km NE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 3: 532 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 602 km NNE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 941 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 27.1°N 123.3°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua  for WeatherPhilippines


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