Monday, July 23, 2018

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 04


Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 04


Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) has maintained its strength for the past 6 hours while over the Balintang channel and is currently passing along the northwestern  part of the Babuyan Group of Islands. Its rainbands continue to affect the Extreme Northern Luzon.

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (JOSIE) will move northeastward across the Balintang Channel at a forward speed of 28 km/hr, passing across the Southern part of the Batanes Group. TD 13W is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the eastern part of Bashi Channel on Sunday morning (July 22), and it will be over East Taiwan on Sunday evening.

The combined effects of this depression, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), & TS Ampil (Inday) will continue to bring light to moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila today.

Where is 13W (JOSIE)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, July 21…1500 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the Balintang Channel (near 19.6°N 121.2°E), about 42 km northwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan or 124 km north-northeast of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Northeast@ 25 kph, towards the Southern Batanes
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern and Extreme Northern Luzon – Today

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY MORNING: Becomes a TS as it turns northeastward while over the eastern part of Bashi Channel…about 188 km east of Basco, Batanes [8AM July 22: 20.6°N 123.8°E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY EVENING: Slightly intensifies as a TS while over the east of Taiwan…about 360 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM July 22: 23.7°N 124.8°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

MONDAY EVENING: Exits Philippine Area of responsibility (PAR) and slightly weaken as a TS while over the Southern part of East China Sea…about 288 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM July 23: 25.5°N 124.6°E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 390 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat July 21, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.6°N Lat 121.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 148 km NNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 173 km NNE of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 3: 246 km NNE of Vigan  City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 4: 290 km NNW of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 562 km N of Metro Manila
12 hr.Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.6ºN 123.8ºE (TS)
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.7°N 124.8°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 25.5°N 124.6°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by:
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.



No comments: