Monday, July 16, 2018

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 03


Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 03





Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 16 July 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Tuesday, 17 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) has maintained its strength as it starts to cross the Babuyan Group of Islands.  Windy with heavy rains expected along Extreme Northern Luzon.

24-hr Outlook: TD 11W (HENRY) is expected to maintain its fast, westward movement and will cross the Babuyan Group of Islands tonight between 7 to 10 pm, and will exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning (July 17).  This system could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight or early Tuesday morning.

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), TD 11W (HENRY), and LPA 94W will continue to bring moderate to heavy scattered/occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern, Central & Southern Luzon; MiMaRoPa; Bicol Region; Metro Manila; & Western Visayas.

Where is 11W (HENRY)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 16…0900 GMT. The center was located over the eastern part of Bashi Channel (near 18.9N 122.9E), about 91 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 158 km east-southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West @ 23 kph, towards Babuyan Group of Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Babuyan Island Group tonight between 7:00-10:00 PM, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern & Northern Luzon (July 17). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the western part of the Balintang Channel, and is about to exit the PAR…about 133 km northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM July 17: 19.4N 119.9E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates rapidly westward, while traversing the northern part of the South China Sea, outside of PAR…about 313 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM July 17: 19.9N 115.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of the Gulf of Tonkin, starts to weaken after crossing Hainan Island…about 659 km west-southwest of Hong Kong, China [8AM July 18: 20.2N 108.2E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.   

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 265 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon July 16, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.9º N Lat 122.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 198 km SSE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 219 km NNE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 226 km NE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 4: 250 km NNE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 519 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.9N 115.5E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.2N 108.2E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.9N 105.4E (LPA)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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