Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 04


Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 04


Issued at: 11:45 PM PhT (15:45 GMT) Monday, 16 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 17 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) has maintained its intensity as it moves westward across Babuyan Island Group at a speed of 28 km/hr. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 11W (HENRY) is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves westward at an accelerated speed of 40 km/hr. It will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning (July 17).  

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), TD 11W (HENRY), and LPA 94W will continue to bring moderate to heavy scattered/occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern, Central & Southern Luzon; MiMaRoPa; Bicol Region; Metro Manila; & Western Visayas.

Where is 11W (HENRY)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, July 16…1500 GMT. The center was located over the central part of Balintang Channel (near 18.8N 121.3E), about 56 km east-northeast of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte or 62 km south-southwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan..
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West @ 28 kph, towards West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern & Northern Luzon (July 17). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) after it exits the PAR, over the West Philippine Sea…about 323 km west-northwest of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte [8AM July 17: 19.6N 117.9E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

TUESDAY EVENING: Becomes a slightly intensified TS while over the West Philippine Sea, already outside of PAR…about 298 km south-southwest of Hong Kong, China [8PM July 17: 19.8N 113.4E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM..

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 385 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Mon July 16, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.8º N Lat 121.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km NE of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 155 km N of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 3: 199 km SSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 216 km NNW of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 471 km N of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.8N 113.4E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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