Thursday, July 19, 2018

Tropical Depression 12W (INDAY) Update No. 02


Tropical Depression 12W (INDAY) Update No. 02


Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Wednesday, 18 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 19 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 12W (INDAY) has slightly intensified while over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea where it remained quasi-stationary in the past 6 hours.  

TD 12W (INDAY) will not directly affect any landmass of the country.

24-hr Outlook: TD 12W (INDAY) is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it recurves east-northeast over the central part of the North Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 19 km/hr.  

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (HABAGAT), Monsoon Trough, & TD 12W (INDAY) will bring moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern, Northern, Western, & Central Luzon.

Where is 12W (INDAY)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 18…0900 GMT.. The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.1 N 126.3 E), about442 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 474 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Quasi-stationary, towards Central part of the North Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it recurves east-northeastward over the central part of the North Philippine Sea…812 km east of Basco, Batanes [2PM July 19: 20.7 N 129.8 E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 893 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM July 20: 22.7 N 130.3 E@ 95kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a slightly intensified STS while over the Okinawa region of Japan…about 701 km east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM July 21: 27.1 N 128.2 E @ 100kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 640 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed July 18, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.1º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 503 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 508 km E of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 3: 535 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 568 km ENE of Santiago  City, Isabela
Distance 5: 751 km NE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.7 N 129.8 E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 22.7 N 130.3 E (STS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 27.1 N 128.2 E (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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