Saturday, July 21, 2018

Tropical Depression 13W Update No. 01


Tropical Depression 13W Update No. 01





Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 July 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

The strong disturbance (LPA 98W) over the West Philippine Sea has rapidly intensified into Tropical Depression 13W and has entered the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…now threatens Extreme Northern Luzon particularly Ilocos Provinces and the Batanes-Babuyan Group of Islands. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today and move east-northeastward across the Balintang Channel at a forward speed of 24 km/hr, and will pass over or very close to Batanes by early Sunday morning (July 22).  

The combined effects of its rainbands, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), & TS Ampil (Inday) will bring light to moderate to at times heavy  or extreme scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila today..

Where is 13W?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 21…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Balintang Channel (near 17.9°N 117.7°E), about 287 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur or 311 km northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)East @ 16 kph, towards the Babuyan-Batanes Islands
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Ilocos Region and Extreme Northern Luzon – Today.. 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a TS as it turns east-northeastward while over the  southern part of the Balintang Channel, just west of the offshore areas of Ilocos Norte…110 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM July 21: 18.5°N 119..6°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates rapidly to the northeast as it traverses the southern portions of the Batanes Group of Islands, strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 42 km south-southwest of Basco, Batanes [2AM July 22: 20.1°N 121.9°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to accelerate while over the Yaeyama Islands, turns northward as it exits the northern border of PAR…about 296 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 23: 24.9°N 124.5°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 535 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat July 21, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.9ºN Lat 117.7ºE Lon
Distance 1: 338 km WSW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 350 km WNW of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 3: 373 km NW of Urdaneta City, Pangasinan
Distance 4: 410 km NW of Tarlac City, Tarlac
Distance 5: 515 km NW of Metro Manila
12 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.5ºN 119.6ºE (TS)
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.1ºN 121.9ºE (STS)
36 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.9ºN 124.3ºE (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.9ºN 124.5ºE (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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