Friday, December 05, 2014

Typhoon HAGUPIT (RUBY) Update #009


for Friday, 05 December 2014 [2:27 PM PhT]


Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Friday 05 December 2014
Next Update: Friday Evening, 05 December 2014

HAGUPIT (RUBY) has been downgraded into a Typhoon as it continues to weaken while tracking across the Philippine Sea...due to the initial effect of the Surge of the cold Northeast Monsoon on the cyclone. However, it remains a serious threat to Bicol Region and Visayas. The potential landfall area of this cyclone is along the southern part of Eastern Samar between 6PM - 10PM, Dec 06 (Saturday).

This super typhoon will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions and cooler temperatures across Northern and Central Luzon beginning Friday...becoming more frequent with possible occasional slight to moderate rains along eastern sections of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Northern Quezon. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Southern Luzon, Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao should closely monitor the development of Hagupit (Ruby).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy to Extreme Rains (150 mm or more): Samar Provinces, Leyte, Sorsogon, Albay, Masbate, Romblon, northern portions of Capiz and Iloilo, extreme northern part of Negros Occidental, and Northern Cebu. - beginning Friday Evening (Dec 05) through Sunday afternoon (Dec 07). Read more...
  • Heavy Rains (100 mm to 150 mm): Southern part of Camarines Sur, Aklan incl. Tablas Is., rest of Capiz and Iloilo, rest of northern part of Negros Occidental, northern portion of Southern Cebu, Bohol, Southern Leyte, and Dinagat and Siargao Islands. - beginning Friday Evening (Dec 05) through Sunday evening (Dec 07). Read more...
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30-50 mm): Rest of Bicol, Southern Quezon, rest of Visayas, and Northeastern Mindanao. - beginning Saturday morning Dec (06) through Sunday evening (Dec 07). Read more...

  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Eastern Bicol, Eastern and Northern Samar - beginning Saturday morning (Dec 06). Read more...

  • Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 4-5.5 m (13-18 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Bicol Region beginning Saturday morning onwards. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Surigao del Norte, Rest of Visayas, Ragay Gulf, Visayan Sea and Eastern Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).


As of 11:00 AM PhT today...0300 GMT...Dec 05.

Classification/Name: TY Hagupit (Ruby)
Location: Over central part of the Philippine Sea (near 11.8N 129.2E)
About: 400 km northeast of Siargao Island...or 415 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 215 kph near the center...Gustiness: 260 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 150 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 929 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,005 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 120 km from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 11 kph
Towards: Samar


TY Hagupit (Ruby) is expected to move westward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TY Hagupit (Ruby) will be traversing the west-central part of the Philippine Sea...crossing the southern part of Samar Island by Saturday evening... and emerge over the Samar Sea by Sunday early morning.

TY Hagupit (Ruby) is expected to continue losing strength throughout the outlook period as it interacts with the cool dry air of the Northeast Monsoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 175 kph by Sunday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its weakening phase while moving slowly generally wesstward across the Philippine Sea...about 185 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [11AM DEC 06: 11.7N 127.1E @ 200kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens further as it emerges over the Samar Sea...after making landfall and crossing over the southern part of Samar...about 70 km southeast of Masbate [11AM DEC 07: 11.7N 124.0E @ 175kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Continues to weaken as it turns to the west-northwest...traversing across the Visayan Sea towards Panay- Tablas-Romblon Area...about 50 km northeast of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro [11AM DEC 08: 12.6N 121.5E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Dec 05, 2014
Location of Eye: Near 11.8º N Lat 129.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 390 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2:460 km ENE of Tacloban City
Distance 3: 600 km ENE of Metro Cebu
Distance 4: 580 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 605 km ESE of Legazpi City









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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