Monday, December 29, 2014

TD 23W (SENIANG) Update #003


for Monday, 29 December 2014 [3:30 AM PhT]


Issued at: 2:00 AM PhT (18:00 GMT) Monday 29 December 2014
Next Update: Mid-Monday Morning, 29 December 2014

Tropical Depression 23W (SENIANG) has maintained its strength and slow trek closer to Caraga Region...just along the coast of Surigao Del Sur. This cyclone will bring heavy to extreme rainfall across Northeastern Mindanao, Eastern and Central Visayas, and Palawan this coming week. The potential landfall area of 23W will be over the eastern shores of Surigao Del Sur between 5 to 11 AM today (Dec 29).

This cyclone will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and mostly cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the northern and eastern sections of Luzon including the Bicol Region.

Residents and visitors along Visayas, Mindanao and Palawan. should closely monitor the development of 23W (Seniang).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Eastern Mindanao especially Dinagat and Siargao Islands, Surigao Provinces, Eastern portions of Agusan Provinces, Northern portions of Compostela Valley and Davao Oriental. - tonight through Monday afternoon (Dec 29).
  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Southern portion of Southern Leyte, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon and the Northern portion of Davao Region. - tonight through Monday afternoon (Dec 29).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Eastern Visayas, Cebu, Siquijor, Bohol, Northern portion of Zamboanga del Norte, Lanao Provinces, Cotabato, Northern part of Maguindanao, and Davao del Sur including Davao City and Samal Island. - tonight through Monday evening (Dec 29).

  • Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Caraga Region. - tonight through Monday afternoon (Dec 29).


As of 11:00 PM PhT today, Dec 28...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD 23W (Seniang)
Location: Just along the coast of Surigao Del Sur (near 8.1N 126.9E)
About: 65 km northeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental...or 65 km east of Bislig City, Surigao del Sur
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 880 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 10 kph
Towards: Surigao del Sur-Agusan Del Norte Area


TD 23W (Seniang) is expected to continue moving west to west-northwestward during the next 24 hours and will turn westerly to a slight west-southwest track through 48 hours. On the forecast track, TD 23W (Seniang) will be making landfall along the shores of Surigao Del Sur by Monday morning (between 5-11 AM)...and will traverse Surigao del Sur-Agusan del Norte Area through late Monday afternoon. It shall then emerge over Bohol Sea, passing across Camiguin Island on Monday evening...on its way towards the southern coast of Negros through Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday evening, 23W shall enter Sulu Sea towards Southern Palawan.

TD 23W (Seniang) is expected to maintain its strength within the next 24 hours and intensify throughout the forecast period. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 65 kph on Tuesday evening.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Maintains its strength as it emerges along the coast of Agusan Del Norte...about 35 km west-northwest of Butuan City [8PM DEC 29: 9.0N 125.2E @ 55kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across Sulu Sea...about 115 km west-southwest of Dumaguete City, Negros Occidental [8PM DEC 30: 9.0N 122.3E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Maintain its strength as it approaches Southern Palawan...about 105 km souththeast of Narra, Palawan [8PM DEC 31: 8.8N 119.2E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun Dec 28, 2014
Location of Center: Near 8.1º N Lat 126.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km SE of Butuan City
Distance 2: 220 km SSE of Siargao Island
Distance 3: 245 km SE of Surigao City
Distance 4: 255 km ESE of Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 5: 270 km SE of Camiguin Island









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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