Wednesday, December 10, 2014

TS HAGUPIT (RUBY) Update #027


for Wednesday, 10 December 2014 [8:00 AM PhT]


Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Wednesday 10 December 2014
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 10 December 2014

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT (RUBY) has become more compact and regained strength while moving westward across the West Philippine Sea, away from the Philippines.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions and cooler temperatures across Northern Luzon...becoming more frequent with possible occasional slight to moderate rains along northwestern sections of Ilocos Region. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Hagupit (Ruby).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.



As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT...Dec 10.

Classification/Name: TS Hagupit (Ruby)
Location: Off the western part of the West Philippine Sea (near 13.5N 117.0E)
About: 345 km west-southwest of Lubang Is., Occidental Mindoro...or 385 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 100 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (from outer bands to near the center): 25 to 250 mm [Slight to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 540 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: WSW @ 21 kph
Towards: Southeastern Vietnam


TS Hagupit (Ruby) is expected to move west to west-southwest with an increase in its forward speed throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Hagupit (Ruby) will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight...and shall be off the coastal areas of Southeastern Vietnam, near Nha Trang by early Friday morning.

TS Hagupit (Ruby) is expected to decay and weaken throughout the outlook period due ot the entrainment of cold-dry air of the Northeast Monsoon and landmass interaction. It shall be downgraded into a Tropical Depression by early Friday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph by 48 hours.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it moves out of the PAR...increases its forward speed while over the South China Sea...about 420 km east-northeast of Nha Trang, Vietnam [2AM DEC 11: 13.0N 113.0E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded into a Tropical it prepares to make landfall along Southeastern Vietnam...about 50 km east-southeast of Nha Trang, Vietnam [2AM DEC 12: 12.1N 109.6E @ 55kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Just an area of dissipating low pressure moving along the Vietnam-Cambodia Border...about 80 km north of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [2AM DEC 13: 11.5N 106.5E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Dec 10, 2014
Location of Center: Near 13.5º N Lat 117.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 385 km SW of Subic Bay, Zambales
Distance 2: 395 km NE of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 3: 420 km W of Puerto Princesa, Palawan
Distance 4: 425 km WSW of Tagaytay City
Distance 5: 855 km ENE of Nha Trang, Vietnam









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