Monday, December 29, 2014

TS 23W (SENIANG) Update #004


for Monday, 29 December 2014 [8:45 AM PhT]


Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Monday 29 December 2014
Next Update: Monday Afternoon, 29 December 2014

23W (SENIANG) becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it makes landfall over Surigao Del Sur, very near the Municipalities of Cagwait and Marihatag. Heavy to extreme rainfall with gusty winds are occurring across Northeastern and Northern Mindanao, Eastern and Central Visayas today until tomorrow.

This cyclone will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and mostly cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the northern and eastern sections of Luzon including the Bicol Region.

Residents and visitors along Visayas, Mindanao and Palawan. should closely monitor the development of 23W (Seniang).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Portions of Eastern and Western Samar, Most parts of Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, Northern and Central Negros Occidental, Eastern Misamis Oriental, Caraga, Camiguin, Dinagat and Siargao Islands. - today through Tuesday morning (Dec 30).
  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Samar Provinces, Rest of the Visayas, Northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, some portions of Lanao Provinces, Bukidnon, and the Northern part of Davao Region. - today through Tuesday morning (Dec 30).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Eastern and Southern Bicol including Masbate-Burias-Ticao Islands, Boracay, Northernmost Antique, Western Aklan, Most parts of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Maguindanao, Cotabato and the Rest of Davao Region including Davao and Samal Island. - today through Tuesday morning (Dec 30).
  • Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 85 kph): Caraga Region. - today.


As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Dec 29...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS 23W (Seniang)
Location: Just along the shores of Marihatag and Cagwait, Surigao Del Sur (near 8.8N 126.4E)
About: 15 km southeast of Cagwait, Surigao Del Sur...or 40 km southeast of Tandag City, Surigao del Sur
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 805 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: NW @ 15 kph
Forecast Movement: WNW @ 15 kph
Towards: Surigao del Sur-Agusan Del Norte Area


TS 23W (Seniang) is expected to resume moving west-northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours and will turn westerly to a slight west-southwest track through 48 hours. On the forecast track, TS 23W (Seniang) will be traversing Surigao Del Norte and Agusan Del Norte this morning...and will emerge over Bohol Sea, passing across Camiguin Island this afternoon through the evening...on its way towards Southern Negros. By Tuesday morning, 23W (Seniang) shall traverse Southern Negros, passing over or very close to Dumaguete City...then shall move across the Sulu Sea towards Southern Palawan on Wednesday morning.

TS 23W (Seniang) is expected to be downgraded back to a Tropical Depression within the next 6 to 24 hours due to its interaction with the landmass of Mindanao and the Visayas. Then by 36 to 48 hours, it will regain Tropical Storm status as it moves over the warmer seas of Sulu. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing back to 65 kph by early Wednesday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Over Bohol Sea, approaching Dumaguete City as a weakened TD, turns westward...about 30 km southwest of Tagbilaran City, Bohol [2AM DEC 30: 9.4N 123.6E @ 55kph]. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens back into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across Sulu Sea...about 240 km east-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM DEC 31: 9.1N 120.8E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Crossing Southern Brooke's Point...intensifies slightly...about 20 km northeast of Bataraza, Palawan [2AM JAN 01: 8.7N 117.8E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Dec 29, 2014
Location of Center: Near 8.8º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 70 km N of Bislig City
Distance 2: 100 km E of Butuan City
Distance 3: 130 km SSE of Siargao Island
Distance 4: 150 km SE of Surigao City
Distance 5: 300 km ESE of Tagbilaran City
Distance 6: 320 km SE of Metro Cebu









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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