Wednesday, December 10, 2014

TS HAGUPIT (RUBY) Update #026


for Tuesday, 09 December 2014 [8:46 AM PhT]


Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Tuesday 09 December 2014
Next Update: Wednesday Morning, 10 December 2014

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT (RUBY) has maintained its strength while over the West Philippine Sea as it moves slightly faster, away from the country.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions and cooler temperatures across Northern and Central Luzon...becoming more frequent with possible occasional slight to moderate rains along eastern sections of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Northern Quezon. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along MiMaRoPa and Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Hagupit (Ruby).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Cavite, Western Batangas incl. Lubang Island, and Northern Mindoro - today until tomorrow morning, Wednesday (Dec 10).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30-50 mm): Laguna, Rizal, Metro Manila, most parts of Quezon incl. Polilio Island, Marinduque, Bulacan, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Bataan and Mindoro - today until tomorrow morning, Wednesday (Dec 10).


As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT...Dec 09.

Classification/Name: TS Hagupit (Ruby)
Location: Off the eastern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 13.3N 119.1E)
About: 130 km west-southwest of Lubang Island...or 195 km west-southwest of Puerto Galera
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 25 to 200 mm [Slight to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: WSW @ 17 kph
Forecast Movement: WSW @ 19 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea


TS Hagupit (Ruby) is expected to move west to west-southwest with an increase in its forward speed through the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Hagupit (Ruby) shall traverse the West Philippine Sea and move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday late afternoon. This storm shall be approaching the coast of Vietnam on Thursday afternoon.

TS Hagupit (Ruby) is expected to decay and weaken throughout the outlook period due ot the entrainment of cold-dry air of the Northeast Monsoon. It shall be downgraded into a Tropical Depression by Thursday afternoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph by 48 hours.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength as it increases its forward speed over the West Philippine Sea...about 525 km west-southwest of Lubang Island [2PM DEC 10: 13.0N 115.3E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 350 km east of Nha Trang, Vietnam [2PM DEC 11: 12.2N 112.4E @ 55kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Southern Vietnam as an area of low pressure...about 130 km east-northeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [2PM DEC 12: 11.2N 107.8E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Dec 09, 2014
Location of Center: Near 13.3º N Lat 119.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 185 km NW of Coron, Palawan
Distance 2: 210 km SSW of Subic Bay, Zambales
Distance 3: 215 km WSW of Batangas City, Quezon
Distance 4: 215 km WSW of Tagaytay City
Distance 5: 250 km SW of Metro Manila









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Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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