for Tuesday, 31 August 2010 [7:46 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 30 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY KOMPASU (GLENDA) located to the SE of Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands.
KOMPASU (GLENDA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph
TYPHOON KOMPASU [GLENDA/08W/1007]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 31 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #09/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
KOMPASU (GLENDA) exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while becoming a Category 2 Typhoon...eye expected to pass over Okinawa late this afternoon.
Residents and visitors along the Islands of Ryukyus and Okinawa should closely monitor the progress of KOMPASU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue Aug 31 2010
Location of Eye: 25.0º N Lat 129.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 230 km (125 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 540 km (290 nm) ENE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 3: 925 km (500 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Okinawa Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue Aug 31
TY KOMPASU is expected to continue moving generally northwesterward within the next 24 hours, turning northward later. Strengthening of this system will continue reaching Category 3 status. The eye and its eyewall is expected to pass over Okinawa late this afternoon [2PM AUG 31: 26.1N 128.5E @ 185kph]...and will move quickly away from the island tonight. By tomorrow, the typhoon will enter the warm waters of the East China Sea, therefore, attaining its peak intensity of 195 km/hr [2AM SEP 01: 28.2N 126.3E @ 195kph]. KOMPASU will eventually lose strength as it enters the cooler waters of the Yellow Sea on Thursday morning [2AM SEP 02: 34.6N 123.2E @ 175kph].
KOMPASU is now a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are now near 165 km/hr (90 kts) with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (120 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles).
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm after crossing the Korean Peninsula...begins Extratropical transition while over the Sea of Japan [2AM SEP 03: 39.9N 129.6E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Attains Extratropical status...moving quickly ENE off the west coast of Hokkaido [2AM SEP 04: 42.6N 138.9E @ 55kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Just south of Kuril Islands as a weakening Extratropical system [2AM SEP 05: 42.7N 149.6E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
KOMPASU's strong circulation remains well-organized w/ an established cloud-filled, ragged eye. The inner rain bands and NW Eyewall are expected to reach Okinawa Island this afternoon. Tropical Storm Conditions will reach Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands this morning...increasing to Typhoon Conditions later in the afternoon Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 120 mm (Moderate) near the center of Kompasu or along the southern eyewall. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Under Tropical Storm Conditions, storm surge heights may reach 1 to 3 feet (0.3 to 0.9 meters) above ground level w/ large and dangerous battering waves...increasing to 6 or 8 feet (1.8-2.6 meters) during Typhoon Conditions...especially along the beaches of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands starting today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY KOMPASU (GLENDA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE (IR) IMAGERY REVEALS
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TYPHOON 08W, WHICH FORMED AN EYE NEAR 30/16Z.
THE CURRENT POSITION AND 12 HOUR MOTION ARE BASED (WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE) ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE IN IR, AS WELL AS A DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE IN BOTH A 301621Z 85 GHZ TRMM AND A 301705Z 36 GHZ
AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS TY 08W IS EXPERIENCING ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS STRONG GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS OUTFLOW FROM TS 09W (NAMTHEUN) IS IMPINGING OUTFLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF TY 08W. TY KOMPASU IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED SOUTH OF JAPAN AND IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY
SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING OKINAWA, JAPAN. TY 08W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) NEAR TAU 72 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET NEAR
TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 18 FEET...(more)
>> KOMPASU, meaning: Circinus; a V-shaped device for describing circles or circular arcs. Name contributed by: Japan.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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