for Saturday, 28 August 2010 [12:55 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri August 27 2010):
Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 07W (FLORITA).
07W (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W [FLORITA]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Sat 28 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #01/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 07W (FLORITA) moving North across the South China Sea...no change in strength.
Residents and visitors along Western Luzon, Vietnam and Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 07W (FLORITA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Sat Aug 28 2010
Location of Center: 16.2º N Lat 117.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km (144 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 280 km (150 nm) West of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 405 km (218 nm) NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph
Towards: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 450 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 PM PhT Fri Aug 27
TD 07W is expected to track NW to NNW across the South China Sea and become a Tropical Storm tomorrow evening [8PM AUG 28: 17.7N 116.2E @ 65kph]. The system will begin to turn Northward across the northern part of the South China Sea through Sunday [8PM AUG 29: 20.1N 116.4E @ 85kph]. On this track, 07W will not affect any part of the Philippines.
MONDAY EVENING: 07W will gain more strength while moving Northward slowly across the South China Sea [8PM AUG 30: 21.0N 116.5E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Still tracking North as it moves closer to Southern China [8PM AUG 31: 21.8N 116.5E @ 95kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakening slightly as it approaches the coast of Southern China [8PM SEP 01: 22.4N 116.4E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
07W's circulation continues to consolidate while over the South China Sea and is not yet affecting any land areas at this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with on-&-off showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: MINDORO AND BATANGAS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected. Meanwhile, ITCZ still oscillation in most parts of the Philippine Islands.
Tropical Depression 99W (1004 MB) just NW of Okinawa, located about 895 km NNE of Basco, Batanes (27.0N 127.2E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center...moving North @ 17 kph.
Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) organizing SW of Guam, located about 1,725 km East of Northern Mindanao (9.0N 142.0E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WNW Slowly. The 48-hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 98W is at 40%.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with on-&-off showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: MINDORO AND BATANGAS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected. Meanwhile, ITCZ still oscillation in most parts of the Philippine Islands.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 07W (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER.
HOWEVER, RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY (270939Z 91 GHZ SSMIS
AND 271046Z 91H GHZ SSMIS) DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING RESULTING
IN AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH ENHANCED
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH ITS LOCATION BENEATH THE RIDGE
AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG AN
AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS)...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 07W (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
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