for Sunday, 22 August 2010 [5:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 22 2010):
New changes on the FORECAST OUTLOOK, adding EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK. Meanwhile, we are now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-formed TD 06W (UNNAMED) located over the South China Sea.
06W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [UNNAMED]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 22 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #001/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
The strong but sheared disturbance (LPA) over the central part of the South China Sea, has strengthened into Tropical Depression 06W (UNNAMED)...threatens Hainan Island and Vietnam in the coming days. This system is not a threat to the Philippines.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Vietnam and Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 06W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun Aug 22 2010
Location of Center: 16.2º N Lat 113.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 475 km (257 nm) SE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 2: 500 km (270 nm) ESE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 3: 650 km (350 nm) East of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 4: 680 km (367 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 705 km (380 nm) WNW of Dagupan City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sun Aug 22
TD 06W is expected to move west for the next 12 hours and reach Tropical Storm strength. It will turn WNW-ward by tomorrow afternoon [2PM AUG 23: 16.9N 111.0E @ 75kph] and intensify further upon passing along the SW coast of Hainan Island or near the Resort City of Sanya by early Tuesday morning [2AM AUG 24: 17.8N 109.5E @ 85kph]. It will then be moving into the Gulf of Tonkin on Tuesday afternoon with a slightly weaker winds [2PM AUG 24: 18.9N 107.9E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Making landfall over Northern Vietnam (to the SE of Hanoi), turns westward, weakens further [2PM AUG 25: 20.0N 106.3E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Along Vietnam-Laos Border, downgraded to TD, heading WSW [2PM AUG 26: 20.2N 104.9E @ 55kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated over Laos [2PM AUG 27: 19.7N 103.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
06W's circulation remains sheared with most of its rain-cloud convection located to the South and West of its center. Its rain bands remains over South China Sea, with some patches near the coastal areas of Central Vietnam. Moderate to strong winds of up to 55 kph with higher gusts can be expected within the southern & western quadrants of the rain bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (heavy) situated along the Western and Southern periphery of 06W's center. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 06W (UNNAMED)
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0610.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
*RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. A 220132Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. A 220537Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND REVEALS THAT A MAJORITY OF
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
SHOWING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER
LUZON IS BEGINING TO FILL, ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED VENTING, HOWEVER
POLEWARD OUTFLOW STILL REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THIS TUTT CELL. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 06W...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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