Sunday, August 29, 2010

TS 08W [GLENDA] - Update #02

 


for Sunday, 29 August 2010 [5:55 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS 08W (GLENDA) located to the SE of Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands.


08W (GLENDA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 08W [GLENDA]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 29 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #03/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm
08W (GLENDA) slows down as it entered the NE border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...no change in strength.

Residents and visitors along Ryukyus and Okinawa should closely monitor the progress of 08W.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun Aug 29 2010
Location of Center: 21.4º N Lat 134.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 885 km (478 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,135 km (613 nm) ESE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 3: 1,335 km (720 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Okinawa Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 110 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sun Aug 29

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

TS 08W (GLENDA) is expected to continue moving generally NW-ward within the next 2 days and will strengthen into a severe tropical storm tomorrow [2PM AUG 30: 24.5N 130.3E @ 100kph]. It will then exit PAR tomorrow evening and become a Category 1 Typhoon as it passes very close to Okinawa Island by early Tuesday morning [2AM AUG 31: 26.2N 127.7E @ 120kph]. At sunrise on Tuesday, 08W will be moving farther away from Ryukyus [2PM AUG 31: 28.0N 125.9E @ 140kph].

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  08W (GLENDA) will reach Category 2 as it nears the coast of Eastern China, about 200 km ENE of Shanghai, with tropical storm force winds only affecting the coastal areas of Metropolitan Shanghai [2PM SEP 01: 31.7N 123.4E @ 165kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Recurving sharply towards the NNE...weakens as it enters the cooler waters of the Yellow Sea...starts Extratropical transition [2PM SEP 02: 36.1N 124.2E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON:  Becomes Extratropical while moving across North Korea [2PM SEP 03: 40.9N 127.6E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

08W's circulation continues to quickly organize while moving towards the NW. Tropical Storm Force Winds expected to reach Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands by tomorrow evening. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 110 mm (moderate) near the center of 08W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TS 08W (GLENDA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
 
       


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 29 AUGUST POSITION: 21.4N 135.2E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
290413Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, SUPPORTING THE CURRENT POSITION WITH A HIGH
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS IS ALSO
EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  SOUTH OF
JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE POLEWARD INTO THE YELLOW SEA,
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY. THE LIMITED
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST.
..(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 08W (GLENDA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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