for Saturday, 28 August 2010 [5:44 PM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on FLORITA!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri August 27 2010):
Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 07W (FLORITA).
07W (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 kph
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W [FLORITA]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 28 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #05/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 07W (FLORITA) has slightly jogged towards the NW...threatens Eastern Guangdong including Hong Kong.
Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of 07W (FLORITA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat Aug 28 2010
Location of Center: 18.9º N Lat 116.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 410 km (220 nm) WNW of Laoag City
Distance 2: 465 km (250 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 500 km (270 nm) South of Shantou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 20 kph
Towards: Eastern Guangdong
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 170 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sat Aug 28
TD 07W is expected to continue tracking NNW across the northern part of the South China Sea for the next 2 days and will become a Tropical Storm tonight or early tomorrow morning [2AM AUG 29: 19.7N 117.2E @ 65kph]. It will continue to pick up strength while about 200 km to the south of Eastern Guangdong by tomorrow afternoon [2PM AUG 29: 21.0N 116.9E @ 75kph]. By Monday afternoon, 07W will be just off the coast of Eastern Guangdong, about 85 km SSW of Shantou City [2PM AUG 30: 22.8N 116.4E @ 95kph]. On this forecast track, the center of 07W will make landfall over Eastern Guangdong on or before sunset on Monday.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakening overland as it traverses the mountainous terrain of Guangdong Province [2PM AUG 31: 23.6N 115.9E @ 85kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded into a weak depression...dissipating off Guangdong. [2PM SEP 01: 24.4N 115.2E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
07W's circulation becoming better organized while over the northern part of the South China Se...not yet affecting any land areas at this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 170 mm (heavy) near the center of 07W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with on-&-off showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON (ILOCOS REGION DOWN TO ZAMBALES). Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected. Meanwhile, ITCZ affecting most parts Mindanao.
Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) still accelerating to the NW of Guam, located about 1,800 km East of Northern Luzon (17.6N 139.2E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving NNW @ 26 kph. The 48-hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 98W remains at 50% (Moderate Chance).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 07W (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER NORTHEAST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM NEARBY
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES, RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 07W IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE 15-20 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS DE-
CREASES WHILE IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 48, A SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CHINA ASSUMES STEERING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON
A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH DEPICTS A
SHARP DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. AFTER TAU 48, THE
MODELS DEVIATE IN ALL DIRECTIONS AS MANY OF THEM LOSE THE VORTEX
ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 07W (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment