Saturday, August 07, 2010

Tropical Depression (TD) 96W [ESTER] - Update #01


for Saturday, 07 August 2010 [1:07 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat August 07 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly web advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-developed TD 96W (ESTER).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr


12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 07 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • Tropical Depression 96W (ESTER) upgraded from a Low Pressure Area this morning -- has been relocated to the north as latest visible satellite photo reveals its Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC) 100 km. to the north of its deep rain-cloud convection...still quasi-stationary over the Northern Philippine Sea. Southwest Monsoon (aka. "Habagat" in Tagalog) being pulled by this system, affecting the western areas of the Philippines.

    *Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands, Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes & Ilocos Provinces should closely monitor the progress of 96W (ESTER).

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Jul 23 2010
    Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
    Distance 1: 305 km (165 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 2: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Calayan Island
    Distance 3: 420 km (227 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 4: 485 km (263 nm) SE of Hualien, Taiwan
    Distance 5: 710 km (385 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
    Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
    Towards: Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    T2K TrackMap #001 (for Public): 12 PM PhT Sat Aug 07

    + Forecast Outlook: 96W is expected to remain quasi-stationary for the next 6 to 12 hours and then track NW slowly for the next 24 hours. A developing disturbance (LPA 98W) over South China Sea has interacted with 96W causing the latter to remain Quasi-stationary w/ a possible northward movement. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: 96W's circulation is currently over the Northern Philippine Sea. Its outer bands continues to affect NE Luzon - moderate to strong winds of up to 40 kph w/ occasional rains can be expected along Calayan Islands, Balintang Channel, Batanes & Babuyan Group, Coastal Northern Cagayan & Ilocos Norte. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off rains or showers can be expected along the following affected areas: ZAMBALES, BATAAN, METRO MANILA, WESTERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 45 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) drifting West across the South China Sea...currently located near lat 16.5N lon 114.6E...or about 610 km West of La Union...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving West slowly. This system has a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

    PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    External Links for TD 96W (ESTER)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time


  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists)




    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 

      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


    For the complete details on TD 96W (ESTER)...go visit our website @:


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