Monday, August 09, 2010

TS DIANMU [ESTER] intensifying rapidly...heads for South Korea (Update #08)

 


for Monday, 09 August 2010 [6:25 PM PhT]


click to get RSS data


<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to

2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.

powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 09 2010):

New Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) approaching the area of Palau Island...will be closely monitored for further developments - details below. Currently issuing 6-hrly advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS DIANMU (ESTER).


DIANMU (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph

TROPICAL STORM DIANMU [ESTER/05W/1004]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 09 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #006/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • DIANMU (ESTER) spins up to 95 km/hr...accelerating northward across the East China Sea...now a big threat to South Korea & Cheju Island.

    *Residents and visitors along Eastern china, Western Japan, North & South Korea including Cheju Island should closely monitor the progress of DIANMU (ESTER).

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Aug 09 2010
    Location of Center: 28.3º N Lat 125.5º E Lon
    Distance 1: 320 km (173 nm) NW of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 2: 430 km (232 nm) NNE of Ishigaki, Japan
    Distance 3: 510 km (275 nm) SE of Shanghai, China
    Distance 4: 590 km (318 nm) SSW of Cheju Is., S.Korea
    Distance 5: 945 km (510 nm) NNE of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Present Movement: North @ 28 kph (15 kts)
    Towards: Cheju-South Korea Area
    Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Aug 09

    + Forecast Outlook: DIANMU is expected to continue tracking Northward and intensify within the next 24 hours, reaching peak strength of near typhoon intensity (100-110 kph). It will approach the South Korean Resort island of Cheju by early Wednesday morning, passing just west of the island [2AM AUG 11: 33.2N 125.6E @ 100kph]. The 2 to 3-Day Medium-Range Forecast Track shows the system making landfall off the Southwestern Coast of South Korea before noon Wednesday [2PM AUG 11: 34.9N 127.0E @ 85kph], and will traverse South Korea through Wednesday evening - passing very close to Taegu City. DIANMU will enter the Sea of Japan by Thursday morning. Upon moving across the Sea of Japan, ENE-ward, DIANMU will become an Extratropical Cyclone (ET) on Thursday afternoon [2PM AUG 12: 38.2N 132.9E @ 65kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: DIANMU's circulation is now over the East China Sea, with only its outer bands affecting Yaeyama and Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chains. Intense rain and wind convection still remains to the South & Eastern quadrants of the tropical storm. Strong winds of up to 85 kph-gust can be expected along these island chains. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) situated south of DIANMU's center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHWESTERN LUZON including portions of BATANES, PANGASINAN, LUBANG ISLAND & CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, WESTERN PANAY, & PALAWAN. Moderate to strong SW winds (not in excess of 50 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1010 MB) remains weak to the North of Palau Island, as it tracks WNW @ 19 kph. Located near lat 9.0N lon 135.2E...or about 990 km East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

    Yet another, developing Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1010 MB) was detected to the NW of Wake Island or just to the north of Marcus Island...tracking WNW @ 19 kph across the open seas of the Western Pacific. It was located near lat 26.5N lon 155.6E...or about 1,350 km East of Chichijima...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. This system has a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


    External Links for TS DIANMU (ESTER)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02


  • JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 09 AUGUST POSITION: 26.9N 125.6E.
    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
    IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FURTHER AROUND THE NORTHERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 090439Z
    AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL BANDING EYE. INITIAL
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS.
    ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED
    JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, ALLOWING FOR THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE
    ORGANIZATION AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 05W IS CURRENTLY
    TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF JAPAN AND WILL
    CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO
    FURTHER INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
    IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  BY TAU 48, TS DIANMU SHOULD
    REACH SOUTH KOREA AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINC ZONE. BY
    TAU 72, TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FULLY INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
    SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
    NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, THOUGH THE
    UKMO AND GFDN MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH BEFORE TURNING
    EASTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
    CONSENSUS AS WELL AS PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS...
    (
    more)

    >> DIANMU, meaning: Mother of lightningName contributed by: China.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
    :

    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
    :


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS DIANMU (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved

    __._,_.___
    Recent Activity:
    .

    __,_._,___

    No comments: