Saturday, August 28, 2010

TD 07W [FLORITA] - Update #03

 


for Saturday, 28 August 2010 [12:55 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri August 27 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 07W (FLORITA).


07W (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W [FLORITA]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003

6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 28 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #03/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 07W (FLORITA) still heading north...may threaten Southern China in the coming days.

Residents and visitors along NW Luzon, Taiwan and Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 07W (FLORITA).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat Aug 28 2010
Location of Center: 17.0º N Lat 117.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 275 km (148 nm) WSW of Vigan City
Distance 2: 280 km (150 nm) NW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 435 km (235 nm) NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 130 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: North @ 13 kph
Towards: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Aug 28

FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

TD 07W is expected to track NNW across the South China Sea and become a Tropical Storm early tomorrow morning [2AM AUG 29: 19.1N 117.4E @ 65kph]. It will continue moving NNW at a much slower pace as it intensifies across the northern part of the South China Sea through early Monday [2AM AUG 30: 21.6N 117.0E @ 85kph]. On this track, 07W will be approaching the coast of Eastern Guangdong in Southern China.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Slowing further to just 4 kph while along the coast of Eastern Guangdong...intensifies [2AM AUG 31: 22.7N 116.7E @ 95kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Makes landfall over Eastern Guangdong...weakens quickly [2AM SEP 01: 23.6N 116.3E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Dissipated over the mountains of Eastern Guangdong [2AM SEP 02: 24.4N 115.7E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

07W's circulation slightly disorganized while over the South China Se...not yet affecting any land areas at this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Depression 99W (1004 MB) accelerating fast towards Korea, located about 630 km NNW of Okinawa, Japan (31.7N 125.4E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center...moving NNW @ 35 kph.

Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) not yet organized SW of Guam, located about 1,725 km East of Northern Mindanao (10.6N 138.4E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...moving NNW Slowly. The 48-hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 98W is now at 30% (Moderate Chance).

CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with possible showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: SOME PARTS OF WESTERN LUZON & WESTERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected. Meanwhile, ITCZ affecting most parts Mindanao.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TD 07W (FLORITA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead 
 


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 28 AUGUST POSITION: 16.5N 117.9E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 37 NM WEST. A 271727Z TRMM 37H IMAGE SHOWS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON
THE FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. BASED ON THE FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC, THE 27/12Z
POSITION WAS RELOCATED ABOUT 85 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE 27/12Z
WARNING POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES
BASED ON 2 SHIP OBSERVATIONS DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER, WHICH
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS OF 180/30 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1001 MB. TD
07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 BUT
SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-BUILDS
ACROSS EASTERN CHINA FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH (CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO EASTERN CHINA). THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS (UKMO, WBAR, NOGAPS, ECMWF, GFDN, JGSM AND GFS) ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS. THE LATEST GFS
AID DEPICTS A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TRACK EAST OF TAIWAN WHICH IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT. ANALYSIS OF GFS FIELDS SHOWS ERRONEOUS
INTERACTION AND MERGER WITH TWO OTHER 850 MB VORTICITY CENTERS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO MARGINAL
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 24. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN
TO 50 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AT WHICH POINT TD 07W IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120.
..(more)

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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 07W (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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