for Tuesday, 31 August 2010 [5:51 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).
LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 31 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #17/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
LIONROCK (FLORITA) has drifted eastward during the past 3 hours...could re-enter the NW portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Residents and visitors along NW Luzon, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands, SE China, and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 31 2010
Location of Center: 20.5º N Lat 118.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 290 km (157 nm) SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 330 km (178 nm) NW of Laoag City, PH
Distance 3: 355 km (192 nm) West of Basco, Batanes, PH
Distance 4: 450 km (243 nm) South of Xiamen, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Southwestern Taiwan
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Aug 31
TS LIONROCK is expected to track NNE to Northward for the next 24 hours, before turning NW-ward...likely to strengthen to near Typhoon on Thursday [2PM SEP 01: 22.4N 118.6E @ 110kph]. The storm will start moving NW-ward tomorrow evening and will make landfall over Fujian Province, just south of Xiamen City on Thursday morning. LIONROCK will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it moves inland across the mountains of Fujian Province Thursday afternoon [2PM SEP 02: 24.4N 117.2E @ 85kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 95 km/hr (50 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a depression over Jiangxi Province [2PM SEP 03: 25.6N 115.6E @ 55kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated overland, near Jiangxi-Hunan Border [2PM SEP 04: 26.7N 113.8E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
LIONROCK's strong circulation continues to meander over the warm waters of the South China Sea. If the forecast track goes well, Tropical Storm Force Winds are expected to reach the western coast of Western Taiwan tomorrow afternoon or evening...and over Southern Fujian by tomorrow evening or Thursday morning. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: LUZON including METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, PARTS OF WESTERN VISAYAS, WESTERN MINDANAO AND BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 6
HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 07W HAS MAINTAINED GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS INHIBITING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CREATING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH. TS
07W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS LIONROCK IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL AS DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION WITH TS 09W. TS 07W IS THEN FORECAST TO MERGE WITH 09W
BY TAU 36 AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH. TS LIONROCK SHOULD REACH LAND BY TAU 48 AND DISSIPATE OVER
LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS
DISAGREE IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TURN THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)
>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon Bay. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
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