for Tuesday, 31 August 2010 [8:31 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 30 2010):
Now issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS NAMTHEUN located near the Northern Coast of Taiwan.
NAMTHEUN (09W/1008) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM NAMTHEUN [09W/1008]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 31 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #03/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
09W becomes a Tropical Storm...now internationally named as NAMTHEUN...drifting West to WSW slowly near the coast of Northern Taiwan.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan and Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of NAMTHEUN.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue Aug 31 2010
Location of Center: 25.7º N Lat 121.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 95 km (50 nm) NE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 2: 185 km (100 nm) ESE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 3: 585 km (315 nm) NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: West, WSW @ 10 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Taiwan Strait
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 220 km (120 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue Aug 31
NAMTHEUN is expected to track SW to Southward within the next 2 days and lose strength. This system is having a Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) between Tropical Storm LIONROCK to the SW and Typhoon KOMPASU to the SE. NAMTHEUN is forecast to dissipate along the southern part of Taiwan Strait after being absorbed by the outer bands of LIONROCK on Thursday [2AM SEP 01: 24.6N 119.9E @ 75kph...2AM SEP 02: 22.9N 119.1E @ 35kph].
Tropical Storm Force Winds extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
NAMTHEUN's circulation remains disorganized w/ most of its rain-cloud convection located east of the center. Its rainbands will continue to soak the northern half of Taiwan for the next 2 days. Moderate to heavy rains w/ strong winds not exceeding 60 km/hr will prevail over these areas. Tropical Storm Conditions can be expected along the northern and central part of Taiwan Strait beginning tonight until tomorrow. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of NAMTHEUN. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS NAMTHEUN (09W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0910.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX,
AN 1825Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE, AND RADAR DATA FROM TAIWAN.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH A 301800Z SHIP REPORT
(SHIP ID A8CG6) OF 40 KNOTS. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCES OF NORTH-
EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
AND DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TS 07W, AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MERGE WITH THE STRONGER TS 07W AROUND TAU 48. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WHICH HAS LEFT THE LLCC OF TS 09W PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WILL
PREVENT TS 09W FROM INTENSIFYING IN THE INTERIM PERIOD...(more)
>> NAMTHEUN, meaning: River, which is one of the tributaries of Mekong River. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS NAMTHEUN (09W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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