Wednesday, August 11, 2010

TS DIANMU [ESTER] now passing along the southern coast of South Korea... [Update #12]

 


for Wednesday, 11 August 2010 [7:37 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed August 11 2010):

Tropical Wave (Remnants of LPA 99W) bringing scattered to widespread rains across Bicol Region and the whole of Visayas. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS DIANMU (ESTER).


DIANMU (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph

TROPICAL STORM DIANMU [ESTER/05W/1004]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012

7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wed 11 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #012/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • Tropical Storm DIANMU (ESTER) now passing across the Southern & SE Coastlines of South Korea. Stormy conditions will continue across the area.

    *Residents and visitors along North & South Korea including Cheju Island should closely monitor the progress of DIANMU (ESTER).

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Wed Aug 11 2010
    Location of Center: 34.5º N Lat 127.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 140 km (75 nm) NE of Cheju Is., S.Korea
    Distance 2: 160 km (85 nm) ESE of Busan, S.Korea
    Distance 3: 240 km (130 nm) NW of Sasebo, Japan
    Distance 4: 345 km (185 nm) South of Seoul
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm [Moderate]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Present Movement: NE @ 20 kph (11 kts)
    Towards: Taegu-Busan Area
    Size (in Diameter): 650 km (350 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed Aug 11

    + Forecast Outlook: DIANMU is expected to continue moving NE to ENE-ward within the next 06 to 12 hours...and will just pass over the Southern and SE Coastlines of South Korea today. Its center is expected to pass over or very close to Busan City this afternoon [2PM AUG 11: 35.4N 128.4E @ 75kph]...and will move into the Sea of Japan tonight. DIANMU will start transforming into an Extratropical Cyclone (ET) tomorrow [2AM AUG 12: 37.0N 131.5E @ 65kph...2PM AUG 12: 38.6N 136.3E @ 65kph]. The 2 to 3-Day Medium-Range Forecast Track shows the system accelerating ENE-ward across Northern Honshu and into the NW Pacific Ocean, as it becomes ET by Friday through Saturday [2AM AUG 13: 40.4N 143.3E @ 55kph...2AM AUG 14: 42.5N 159.2E @ 45kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: DIANMU's inner bands remains over Cheju Island and spreading across the Southern half of South Korea...its outer bands affecting the whole of Korean Peninsula and Western Japan (Kyushu). Gale to Tropical Storm Force Winds within the inner bands of this system are located mainly along the Eastern, SE and Southern quadrants. Strong winds of 65 to 100 kph with higher gusts can be expected along these quadrants. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 40 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (moderate) near the center of DIANMU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


    External Links for TS DIANMU (ESTER)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02



  • JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 11 AUGUST POSITION: 33.8N 126.2E.
    *ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
    SYSTEM HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICAL WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION ELONGATED TO
    THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AS IT BEGAN TO ENCOUNTER STRONG WESTERLY
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE
    CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM KUNSAN AIR BASE,
    SOUTH KOREA, AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE
    OF T3.O FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND FROM THE SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM
    CHEJU-DO AIRPORT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 05W HAS ROUNDED
    THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND BEGUN TO
    GET ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DIANMU IS EXPECTED TO
    BRUSH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND EMERGE IN THE SEA
    OF JAPAN AS A WEAKENED TROPICAL STORM BY TAU 24. IT WILL THEN
    TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL (XT) CYCLONE, BECOMING FULL XT BY
    TAU 48 AFTER IT CROSSES NORTHERN HONSHU INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
    AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT WITH GFS AS THE
    SOLE OUTLIER TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE AFTER TAU 36. THIS TRACK
    FORECAST IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36 TO COMPENSATE
    FOR GFS'S UNLIKELY DEFLECTION TO THE LEFT...
    (
    more)

    >> DIANMU, meaning: Mother of lightningName contributed by: China.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
    :

    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
    :


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS DIANMU (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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