Monday, August 30, 2010

TS KOMPASU [GLENDA] - Update #03

 


for Monday, 30 August 2010 [7:30 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS KOMPASU (GLENDA) located to the SE of Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands.


KOMPASU (GLENDA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL STORM KOMPASU [GLENDA/08W/1007]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003

6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 30 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #05/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm
KOMPASU (GLENDA) strengthening more as it continued moving in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands.

Residents and visitors along Ryukyus and Okinawa should closely monitor the progress of KOMPASU.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon Aug 30 2010
Location of Center: 22.9º N Lat 133.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 645 km (350 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 915 km (495 nm) ESE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 3: 1,175 km (635 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Okinawa Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 110 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Mon Aug 30

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

TS KOMPASU is expected to continue moving generally WNW to NW-ward within the next 2 days...becoming a Category 1 Typhoon early tomorrow as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2AM AUG 31: 25.2N 129.2E @ 120kph]. The core will pass over Okinawa Island tomorrow morning @ approximately 11AM Japan Time before it moves away from the area tomorrow afternoon [2PM AUG 31: 27.1N 127.3E @ 140kph]. Before sunrise on Wednesday, KOMPASU will reach Category 2 strength while over the warm waters of the East China Sea [2AM SEP 01: 28.8N 125.9E @ 160kph].

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  KOMPASU (GLENDA) begins a sharp recurvature towards the NE and weakens while over the cooler waters of the Yellow Sea [2AM SEP 02: 33.2N 123.9E @ 130kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING:  Over West-Central Korea after passing close to Seoul...moving quickly NE-ward...downgraded to Tropical Storm, becoming Extratropical [2AM SEP 03: 38.6N 127.9E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:  Accelerating rapidly ENE as an Extratropical Cyclone - across the Sea of Japan [2AM SEP 04: 41.4N 136.4E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

KOMPASU's circulation improving while over the Western Pacific. Tropical Storm Conditions expected to reach Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands early tomorrow morning. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (moderate) near the center of Kompasu. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Under Tropical Storm Conditions, storm surge heights may reach 1 to 3 feet (0.3 to 0.9 meters) above ground level w/ large and dangerous battering waves along the beach-front areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands beginning late tonight.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TS KOMPASU (GLENDA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
 
        


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 30 AUGUST POSITION: 22.2N 133.2E.
*SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING (TCB) EVIDENT. A 291540Z TRMM 37V DEPICTED A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AS WELL AS THE TCB. ADDITIONALLY,
DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS
55 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND A 291700Z AMSU IMAGE. TS 08W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER JAPAN AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STR. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGES DURING THE
RE-CURVE PHASE AS IS TYPICAL. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72 AND
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH NEAR OKINAWA BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY AT A GREATER RATE UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AS IT ENTERS THE YELLOW SEA DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST.
..(more)

>> KOMPASU, meaning: Circinus; a V-shaped device for describing circles or circular arcsName contributed by: Japan.

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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS KOMPASU (GLENDA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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