Wednesday, August 25, 2010

TS MINDULLE [06W] - Update #08

 


for Wednesday, 25 August 2010 [6:55 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 24 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MINDULLE (06W).


MINDULLE (06W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE [06W/1005]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008

6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 25 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm MINDULLE (06W) approaching the Vietnam-Laos Border...dissipating overland. Moderate to heavy rains continuing along its track.

Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam and Laos should closely monitor the progress of MINDULLE (06W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed Aug 25 2010
Location of Center: 19.3º N Lat 104.1º E Lon
Distance: 260 km (140 nm) SW of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Laos
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A (Overland)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 PM PhT Tue Aug 24

FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 12 hours)*

TS MINDULLE is expected to dissipate upon moving into Laos today.


*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

MINDULLE's circulation continues to dissipate while over Vietnam & Laos. Moderate to strong winds of 40 kph with higher gusts, accompanied with moderate to heavy rains can be expected along its rain bands, especially near the center of the storm. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (heavy) near the center of Mindulle or near the Vietnam-Laos Border. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 96W (LPA/1010 MB) disorganized while moving NW across the Philippine Sea, relocated about 465 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes (14.5N 128.5E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...moving NW slowly. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Another Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA/1010 MB) has been detected consolidating to the NW of Guam in the Western Pacific...about 2,020 km East of Extreme Northern Luzon (19.5N 141.2E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving NW slowly. This system has a 50% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

CURRENT ITCZ INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate NW, SW or SE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected along these areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



External Links for TS MINDULLE (06W)


View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0610.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02



JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 25 AUGUST POSITION: 19.2N 104.8E.
*N/A.
..(more)

>> MINDULLE, meaning: A Korean name for Dandelion FlowerName contributed by: DPR Korea.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MINDULLE (06W)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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