Tuesday, August 31, 2010

TS NAMTHEUN [09W] - Update #03

 


for Tuesday, 31 August 2010 [12:50 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 30 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS NAMTHEUN.


NAMTHEUN (09W/1008) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM NAMTHEUN [09W/1008]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 31 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #03/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm
NAMTHEUN (09W) a little disorganized as the much stronger TS LIONROCK dictates its movement towards the WSW. Storm's rainbands continues to affect Taiwan Strait, Southeastern China and the Northern part of Taiwan.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of NAMTHEUN.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 31 2010
Location of Center: 25.3º N Lat 120.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (67 nm) SE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 2: 145 km (78 nm) WNW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 560 km (302 nm) NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Taiwan Strait
6-hr Rain Amounts (East of the center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 220 km (120 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Tue Aug 31

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

NAMTHEUN is expected to track SW to SSW within the next 2 days and dissipate. This system is having a Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) between Tropical Storm LIONROCK to the SW and Typhoon KOMPASU to the East. NAMTHEUN is forecast to dissipate along the southern part of Taiwan Strait after being absorbed by the outer bands of LIONROCK on Thursday [8AM SEP 01: 24.9N 119.8E @ 55kph...8AM SEP 02: 23.6N 118.9E @ 35kph].

Tropical Storm Force Winds extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center.


*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

NAMTHEUN's circulation remains disorganized and partially sheared w/ most of its rain-cloud convection located east of the low-level center or near the coast of Northern Taiwan. Its rainbands will continue to bring rainfall over the northern half of Taiwan today. Moderate to heavy rains w/ strong winds not exceeding 60 km/hr will prevail over these areas. Tropical Storm Conditions can be expected along the northern and central part of Taiwan Strait today. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) along its eastern rainbands or about 180 km to the east of NAMTHEUN's center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TS NAMTHEUN (09W)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0910.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
          


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 31 AUGUST POSITION: 25.6N 121.0E.
*THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 302332Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX, RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND RADAR DATA FROM TAIWAN. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS AND
RECENT SHIP REPORTS. TS 09W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW ANALYZED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA AND DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH TS 07W. THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS EXPOSED
DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
FROM TS 07W, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING TS 09W FROM THE
WEST.
..(more)

>> NAMTHEUN, meaning: River, which is one of the tributaries of Mekong RiverName contributed by: Lao PDR.

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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS NAMTHEUN (09W)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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