Tuesday, August 31, 2010

TS NAMTHEUN [09W] - Update #04

 


for Tuesday, 31 August 2010 [7:27 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 31 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS NAMTHEUN.


NAMTHEUN (09W/1008) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM NAMTHEUN [09W/1008]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 31 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #05/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm
NAMTHEUN (09W) weakens while drifting WSW across the Strait of Taiwan.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of NAMTHEUN.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 31 2010
Location of Center: 25.3º N Lat 120.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (62 nm) SE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 2: 165 km (90 nm) WNW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 570 km (308 nm) NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Taiwan Strait
6-hr Rain Amounts (East of the center): 75 mm (Light)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 185 km (100 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Aug 31

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 36 hours)*

NAMTHEUN is expected to track SW within the next 2 days and dissipate near the coast of Southeastern China. This system is having a Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) between Tropical Storm LIONROCK to the SW and Typhoon KOMPASU to the East. NAMTHEUN is forecast to dissipate near the southeastern coast of China after its circulation will be absorbed by the outer bands of LIONROCK by tomorrow [2PM SEP 01: 24.3N 118.8E @ 45kph...2AM SEP 02: 23.6N 118.1E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

NAMTHEUN's circulation remains disorganized and partially sheared w/ most of its rain-cloud convection located east of the low-level center or near the coast of Northern Taiwan. Its dissipating rainbands will continue to bring rainfall over the northern half of Taiwan tonight. Light to moderate rains w/ decreasing winds not exceeding 50 km/hr will prevail over these areas. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 40 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 75 mm (light) along its eastern rainbands or about 150 km to the east of NAMTHEUN's low-level center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TS NAMTHEUN (09W)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0910.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
 
          


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 31 AUGUST POSITION: 25.3N 120.1E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND
RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE LLCC REMAINS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM
07W. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
ANALYZED ALONG SOUTHERN CHINA AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TS 07W. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TOWARD TS 07W AND MERGE BY TAU 36. BECAUSE TS 07W IS BETTER
DEVELOPED AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED
DEVELOPMENT, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AS
THE TWO CYCLONES INTERACT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL OF THE
TRACKERS SEEM TO WEAKEN AND LOSE THE LLCC BY TAU 24.
..(more)

>> NAMTHEUN, meaning: River, which is one of the tributaries of Mekong RiverName contributed by: Lao PDR.

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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS NAMTHEUN (09W)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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