for Tuesday, 31 August 2010 [6:15 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 30 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY KOMPASU (GLENDA).
KOMPASU (GLENDA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph
TYPHOON KOMPASU [GLENDA/08W/1007]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 31 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #11/JMA RADAR
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon KOMPASU (GLENDA) moving quickly away from Okinawa...Typhoon Conditions gradually subsiding across the island.
Residents and visitors along the Islands of Ryukyus and Okinawa should closely monitor the progress of KOMPASU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
Time/Date: 6:10 PM PhT Tue Aug 31 2010
Location of Eye: 27.0º N Lat 127.7º E Lon [RADAR FIX]
Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) NNW of Central Okinawa
Distance 2: 445 km (240 nm) NE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 3: 935 km (505 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: East China Sea
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 120 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Aug 31
TY KOMPASU will continue to move farther away from Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands and into the East China Sea...recurving NE-ward with some strengthening expected (possibly reaching Category 3 status) [2PM SEP 01: 31.3N 124.6E @ 195kph]. By Thursday afternoon, the typhoon will start to make landfall over the SW part of North Korea as a Category 2 system [2PM SEP 02: 37.7N 125.9E @ 165kph], and cross North Korea in the evening.
KOMPASU remains a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 175 km/hr (95 kts) with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (120 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers (95 nautical miles).
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Speeds up ENE-ward across the Sea of Japan...becoming Extratropical [2PM SEP 03: 41.4N 134.5E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes Extratropical after crossing the southernmost part of Hokkaido [2PM SEP 04: 40.8N 145.9E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
KOMPASU's circulation has shrunk a little bit after crossing Okinawa. Southern inner bands covering the whole of Okinawa and Ryukyus, as the core moves farther away from the area. Typhoon Conditions gradually subsiding across Okinawa, with Tropical Storm Conditions prevailing...gradual improvement of the weather can be expected over these islands late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 120 mm (Moderate) near the center of Kompasu or along the southern eyewall. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Under Tropical Storm Conditions, storm surge heights may reach 1 to 3 feet (0.3 to 0.9 meters) above ground level w/ large and dangerous battering waves...increasing to 6 or 8 feet (1.8-2.6 meters) during Typhoon Conditions. Waves and swells will gradually improve along Okinawa and Ryukyus as KOMPASU moves farther away.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY KOMPASU (GLENDA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*THE EYE HAS CONTRACTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY CLOUD-FILLED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM 310000Z. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KADENA
AB AROUND 310600Z INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE YET TO
ARRIVE ON STATION. HOWEVER, SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED AN
IMPRESSIVE 44 MB IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS, AND AS OF 310750Z IS AT 911 MB.
THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK OVER OKINAWA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AFTER 010600Z AND
BEGIN TO RECURVE OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IN THE SEA OF JAPAN. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY KOMPASU WILL INTENSITY MUCH
HIGHER THAN 100 KNOTS GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM 09W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY EVIDENCES PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TYPHOON FROM THE STORM. MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND JTWC FORECASTS...(more)
>> KOMPASU, meaning: Circinus; a V-shaped device for describing circles or circular arcs. Name contributed by: Japan.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY KOMPASU (GLENDA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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