Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009
Name: SUPER TYPHOON YAGI [16W/0614]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 21 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 22 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #018
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Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 22 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #018
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YAGI (16W) BECOMES THE FIFTH SUPER TYPHOON OF THE 2006
SEASON...PASSING NORTH OF AGRIHAM ISLAND.
SEASON...PASSING NORTH OF AGRIHAM ISLAND.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: YAGI is expected to turn NW'ly for the
next 24 hours, with the eye & core (eyewall) passing very
close to Iwo Jima Island tomorrow evening approx 11 PM JST.
The 2 to 5-day (Sep 23-26) Long Range Forecast shows the
system doing a sharp Northward turn & recurving to the NE
- sparing Kyushu, Japan on a direct hit, but affecting the
coastal areas of SE Japan. This dangerous typhoon shall move
into an environment of increasing wind shear and lower sea
surface temperatures (SSTs), its strength weakening down
to a Category 1 typhoon and eventually losing tropical cha-
racteristics sometime Monday or Tuesday (Sep 25 or 26), be-
coming an . All interests in Iwo Jima & Southeastern Japan
especially Honshu should continue closely monitoring the
progress of this approaching dangerous typhoon.
+ EFFECTS: The typhoon's extreme southern outer rainbands is
now spreading across Agrihan Island. Increasing dangerous
storm tides with large battering waves can be expected along
the Northernmost Mariana & Iwo Jima Islands today until Sa-
turday (Sep 23)...coastal flooding expected (13 to 18 feet).
Iwo Jima & Bonin Islands on the other hand shall feel the
initial effects of its Outer rainbands late tonight probably
before or after midnight.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 21.1º N...LONGITUDE 146.9º E {SatFix}
DISTANCE 1: 705 KM (380 NM) SE OF IWO JIMA ISLAND
DISTANCE 2: 670 KM (362 NM) NNE OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 885 KM (478 NM) NNE OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 295 KM/HR (160 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 910 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AGRIHAN-IWO JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 630 KM (340 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 40 FEET (12.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST TIME THU SEPTEMBER 21
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 SEP: 21.9N 144.8E / 250-305 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 SEP: 23.7N 142.5E / 260-315 KPH / NW @ 26 KPH
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 295 KM/HR (160 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 910 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AGRIHAN-IWO JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 630 KM (340 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 40 FEET (12.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST TIME THU SEPTEMBER 21
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 SEP: 21.9N 144.8E / 250-305 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 SEP: 23.7N 142.5E / 260-315 KPH / NW @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 SEP: 27.6N 140.8E / 230-280 KPH / N @ 20 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.6N 147.7E.
^STY YAGI HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST
OF HONSHU NEAR 30.0N 151.0E. THIS RIDGING EXTENDS WEST-SOUTH-
WESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS LOCATED AROUND 140 EAST LONGITUDE.
STY YAGI IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD TOWARD
THIS WEAKNESS AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE AND ASSUME A NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK...(more info)
>> YAGI {pronounced: ya~gi}, meaning: Capricornus (goat).
Name contributed by: Japan
____________
____________
RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wundergr
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.......noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on STY YAGI (16W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on STY YAGI (16W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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