Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #05

Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 12 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 13 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
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TYPHOON SHANSHAN (LUIS)
DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS

TAIWAN-OKINAWA AREA...NOW AT CATEGORY 2 IN THE SAFFIR-

SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to continue drifting
WNW for the next 2 days due to the westward expansion of the
High Pressure north of it. The 3 to 5-day Long Range Forecast
(Sep 15-17) shows the system turning Northward (Friday morning)
in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyus Area. The eye shall pass
close to the East of Okinawa, Japan Sunday Morning (Sep 17).

+ EFFECTS: This typhoon is not yet affecting any islands at
the moment. However, its outer rainbands are expected to reach
Okinawa-Yaeyama-Ryukyu Islands Friday or Saturday (Sep 15 or 16).

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon
enhanced by a strong Tropical Disturbance (LPA) has been
dragged over the South China Sea, leaving Western Luzon
almost cloud-free.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The active Tropical Disturbance (LPA/
95W/1006 mb) over the South China Sea continues to strengthen &
was estimated about 565 km WNW of Laoag City (19.5N 115.4E)...
it was moving North slowly towards Southern China with winds
of 40 km/hr. This disturbance is likely to become a Tropical
Depression within the next 24 to 48 hours.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch
changes every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 19.8º N...LONGITUDE 131.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 965 KM (520 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 1,010 KM (545 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 3: 815 KM (440 NM) SSE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 4: 1,145 KM (618 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 954 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 28 FEET (8.5 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-OKINAWA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM HKT TIME TUE SEPTEMBER 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 20.1N 130.4E / 175-215 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 20.5N 129.3E / 185-230 KPH

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 21.2N 127.3E / 215-260 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.7N 131.5E.
^TY SHANSHAN HAS TRACKED SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED
SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN INCREASINGLY POLE-
WARD THROUGH 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-

LATITUDE (LOW PRESSURE) SHORTWAVE...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning: A fairly
common pet name for young girls. Name contributed
by: Hong Kong, China
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 19.7N 131.6E / WNW @ 9 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.....noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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