Sunday, September 17, 2006

Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS) off the NW tip of Kyushu...[Update #015]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #015
Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 17 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 18 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #030
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON SHANSHAN (LUIS) PUMMELS WESTERN HONSHU WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS...EYE PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE
PORT CITY OF SASEBO, JAPAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN's eye is now passing very close
to Sasebo City and shall lose its tropical characteristics
anytime tonight. The storm is forecast to move fast into the
Sea of Japan via Korean Strait early tomorrow morning Sep 18


+ EFFECTS: The typhoon's inner bands continues to affect Hon-
shu and the coastal areas surrounding the Strait of Korea -
as the core passes by early tonight. Kindly refer to EPFT
shown below for its estimated time of arrival. Meanwhile,
the outer bands of Shanshan continues to spread across Ko-
rea, Sea of Japan, Shikoku and the northern & western parts
of Japan. Moderate to heavy rains with damaging typhoon-force
winds in excess of 100 km/hr can be expected along its inner
bands with diminishing winds and rains at the outer bands.
Precautionary measures must be fully implemented, along the
affected areas. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous
battering waves can be expected near and to the north or
east of where the center of Shanshan makes a passby espe-
cially along Kyushu's coastal stretch
.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: N/A
.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The active Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/96W/1004 mb) over the Eastern Marianas is now Tropical
Storm YAGI (16W). A separate update will be issued on this
new system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 33.3º N...LONGITUDE 129.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 25 KM (13 NM) NW OF SASEBO, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2:  60 KM (33 NM) NW OF NAGASAKI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 80 KM (43 NM) WSW OF FUKUOKA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 4: 205 KM (110 NM) SSE OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 39 KM/HR (21 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SEA OF JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 705 KM (380 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST TIME SUN SEPTEMBER 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 24 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 36.4N 131.2E / 110-140 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 40.7N 133.4E / 75-95 KPH [XT]

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 32.3N 129.1E.
^TY SHANSHAN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE SPEED TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM. THE 8 PM SEP 16 500MB
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED 50 TO 60 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
EAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN HONSHU. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
AND IS CLEARLY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TY 
SHANSHAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 
24 HOURS
...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning:
A fairly 
   common pet name for young girls. Name contributed 
   by:
Hong Kong, China

_______________________________________________________________________

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

+ Sasebo-Nagasaki: Ongoing until 8PM JST tonight.

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon.
It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found.
EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and
heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning
synopsis is issued.
Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this
for life or death decisions.

_________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY SHANSHAN (LUIS)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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