Monday, September 18, 2006

TS YAGI (16W) begins turning SE... [Update #002]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL STORM YAGI [16W/0614] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 18 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 18 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #004
_______________________________________________________________________
  
TROPICAL STORM YAGI (16W) GAINED MORE STRENGTH AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: YAGI is expected to drift Eastward for
the next 12 hours then shall track more SE'ly later tonight
before heading SW'ly tomorrow morning. By early Wednesday
morning (Sep 20), YAGI shall take a Westward turn and become
a Typhoon before eventually accelerating West to a slight
WNW track. The 3 to 5-day (Sep 21-23) Long Range Forecast
shows the system continuing pursuing a straight Westward
to a slight WNW direction passing over the Northern tip of
Marianas or near the Island of Agrihan Friday evening (Sep
22). All interests in Marianas and Micronesia should closely
monitor the progress of this developing tropical cyclone. 

+ EFFECTS: At this moment, YAGI is not yet affecting any
Western Pacific islands.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 20.7º N...LONGITUDE 158.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 620 KM (335 NM) SE OF MARCUS ISLAND
DISTANCE 2:  1,505 KM (813 NM) NE OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 1,675 KM (905 NM) NE OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 4: 850 KM (460 NM) WNW OF WAKE ISLAND
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: EAST @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: WESTERN PACIFIC
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST TIME MON SEPTEMBER 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 20.6N 158.9E / 95-120 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 20.2N 159.0E / 100-130 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 19.3N 153.7E / 140-165 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.7N 158.5E.
^IN THE NEAR TERM, TS YAGI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A
REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AROUND 36
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS...(more info)

>> YAGI {pronounced: ya~gi}, meaning: Capricornus (goat). 
   Name contributed by: Japan
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS YAGI (16W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

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Posted by MJ Klein at 09:15

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