Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #04

Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 12 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 12 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
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SHANSHAN (LUIS)
BECOMES THE 8TH TYPHOON OF 2006..DRIFTING
NORTHWESTWARD THREATENING OKINAWA AREA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to continue moving
NW'ly for the next 12 hours before turning more to the West
tonight due to a building High Pressure north of the system.
The 3 to 5-day Long Range Forecast (Sep 15-17) shows the
system turning Northward (Friday morning) in the direction
of Okinawa-Ryukyus Area. The eye shall pass very close to
Okinawa Sunday Morning (Sep 17).

+ EFFECTS: SHANSHAN is expected to continue moving NW'ly for
the next 12 hours before turning more to the West tonight due
to a building High Pressure north of the system. The 3 to
5-day Long Range Forecast (Sep 15-17) shows the system
turning Northward (Friday morning) in the direction of
Okinawa-Ryukyus Area. The eye shall pass very close to
Okinawa Sunday Morning (Sep 17).

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon en-
hanced by a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) over the South China
Sea continues to bring cloudy skies with scattered rains &
thunderstorms across Western Luzon.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The broad Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/95W/1006 mb) over the South China Sea was estimated
about 540 km NW of Laoag City (19.7N 115.7E)..it was
moving WSW at 15 kph towards Hainan Island, China.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch
changes every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 19.5º N...LONGITUDE 132.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,100 KM (595 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 1,150 KM (620 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 3: 905 KM (490 NM) SE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 4: 1,270 KM (685 NM) ESE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 972 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-OKINAWA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HKT TIME TUE SEPTEMBER 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 20.0N 132.0E / 140-165 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 20.5N 131.0E / 150-185 KPH

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 21.2N 128.6E / 165-205 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.3N 132.7E.
^TY SHANSHAN CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE STEERING RIDGE
AND HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THIS
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. TY SHANSHAN IS
FORECAST TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE EXTENSION THROUGH 72
HOURS...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning: A fairly
common pet name for young girls. Name contributed
by: Hong Kong, China
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 19.3N 132.7E / WNW @ 13 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh....noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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__________________________________________________________________________________________

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our website @:

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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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